Wednesday, November 9, 2016

Is Inflation A Good Thing or Bad?: And Other Lies, Distortions and Half - Truths

Economics, economic theories, and political realities often cross paths, and make many people wonder what's going on. We have offered heard about the dangers of inflation, the dangers of recession, and other similar terminology, yet most of us will hear the media, and especially the business media, one day warn of the risk of inflation, and another day cite the lower than anticipated inflation rate as something to be concerned about. There are even different sets of indexes, one that includes core items (whatever that really means) and another that measures the inflation rate including energy costs.

The only thing that most American consumers concern themselves about from day to day, is how these costs impact them. Is their cost of living going up, staying the same, or going down? I have not met anyone recently that has told me that he feels that things are costing him less. At the supermarket, manufacturers continuing their clever "game" of effectively raising prices by keeping prices the same but reducing the package size. Shouldn't pricing be considered for these cost of living indexes the way the unit pricing is required by a lot of states, that is, by showing the cost per ounce, or per serving? Most of us have observed increased costs in milk, most meats, fowl, fish, cans of soda, bottles of soda, etc. Yet, we are being told that there is no or little inflation.

Gas prices are constantly fluctuating, yet the pattern is far from being either certain or logical. Have you ever noticed that as soon as there is any raise in the cost of a barrel of gas, prices go up, even though that supply won't be in the stream for a couple of months? Yet, when there is a decrease, the drop takes far more time to translate into a decrease at the pump! About the only thing that has not kept pace with these increases is average wages. Many workers are being paid for fewer hours, while others have been laid off. The unemployment rate statistically is about 5%, but realistically is more than 8.5%. Many Americans are either under-employed or unemployed, and this has been going on for so long, that, for many, unemployment benefits are expiring, or have expired, and when they do, those people stop being counted in the unemployment statistics. If these people's benefits run out, the statistics will show a lower unemployment rate, because the official statistics does not count people not collecting benefits. It also does not count individuals who owned small businesses, that had to go out of business, because owners of these types of businesses are generally not eligible for unemployment,

The bottom line is that statistics are misleading. There is an old saying that the difference between a recession and a depression is, that it's a recession when it happens to someone else, and a depression when it happens to you. It is time for the American public to demand that our government officials stop partisan politics, and realistically address the economy and the joblessness issues, making those the overwhelming top priorities.

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