Economics, economic theories, and political realities often cross
paths, and make many people wonder what's going on. We have offered
heard about the dangers of inflation, the dangers of recession, and
other similar terminology, yet most of us will hear the media, and
especially the business media, one day warn of the risk of inflation,
and another day cite the lower than anticipated inflation rate as
something to be concerned about. There are even different sets of
indexes, one that includes core items (whatever that really means) and
another that measures the inflation rate including energy costs.
The only thing that most American consumers concern themselves about from day to day, is how these costs impact them. Is their cost of living going up, staying the same, or going down. I have not met anyone recently that has told me that he feels that things are costing him less. At the supermarket, manufacturers continuing their clever "game" of effectively raising prices by keeping prices the same but reducing the package size. Shouldn't pricing be considered for these cost of living indexes the way the unit pricing is required by a lot of states, that is, by showing the cost per ounce, or per serving? Most of us have observed increased costs in milk, most meats, fowl, fish, cans of soda, bottles of soda, etc. Yet, we are being told that there is no or little inflation.
Gas prices are constantly fluctuating, yet the pattern is that prices go up over time, although we are, at least temporarily, witnessing a somewhat sustained period of price drops or stability. Interestingly, while most us would consider this a positive (for example the drop in the price of gas means a savings of about $700 per year for the average American, and those of us who heat by using oil, have saved as much or more than that this Winter alone), many economic analysts state that this has hurt energy companies, etc., and therefore, is not that good! We often complain about how everything seems to cost more these days (think about grocery prices, etc.), yet these same economic gurus state that they are concerned that there is not enough inflation! About the only thing that has not kept pace with these increases is average wages. Many workers are being paid for fewer hours, while others have been laid off. The unemployment rate statistically is about 9.5%, but realistically is more than 15%. Many Americans are either under-employed or unemployed, and this has been going on for so long, that, for many, unemployment benefits are expiring. If these people's benefits run out, the statistics will show a lower unemployment rate, because the official statistics does not count people not collecting benefits. It also does not count individuals who owned small businesses, that had to go out of business, because owners of these types of businesses are generally not eligible for unemployment, While the unemployment numbers are presently down, the number of Americans actively fully employed is not very favorable or positive!
For those of us involved in real estate, we have witnessed near - record low mortgage interest rates, but that has been combined with somewhat stricter conditions to qualify for the best rate. Which is better, dramatically increasing home prices, just keeping up or slightly over - performing the inflation rate, or lower prices? I guess it depends if you are a buyer, or a seller?
The bottom line is that statistics are misleading. There is an old saying that the difference between a recession and a depression is, that it's a recession when it happens to someone else, and a depression when it happens to you. It is time for the American public to demand that our government officials stop partisan politics, and realistically address the economy and the joblessness issues, making those the overwhelming top priorities.
The only thing that most American consumers concern themselves about from day to day, is how these costs impact them. Is their cost of living going up, staying the same, or going down. I have not met anyone recently that has told me that he feels that things are costing him less. At the supermarket, manufacturers continuing their clever "game" of effectively raising prices by keeping prices the same but reducing the package size. Shouldn't pricing be considered for these cost of living indexes the way the unit pricing is required by a lot of states, that is, by showing the cost per ounce, or per serving? Most of us have observed increased costs in milk, most meats, fowl, fish, cans of soda, bottles of soda, etc. Yet, we are being told that there is no or little inflation.
Gas prices are constantly fluctuating, yet the pattern is that prices go up over time, although we are, at least temporarily, witnessing a somewhat sustained period of price drops or stability. Interestingly, while most us would consider this a positive (for example the drop in the price of gas means a savings of about $700 per year for the average American, and those of us who heat by using oil, have saved as much or more than that this Winter alone), many economic analysts state that this has hurt energy companies, etc., and therefore, is not that good! We often complain about how everything seems to cost more these days (think about grocery prices, etc.), yet these same economic gurus state that they are concerned that there is not enough inflation! About the only thing that has not kept pace with these increases is average wages. Many workers are being paid for fewer hours, while others have been laid off. The unemployment rate statistically is about 9.5%, but realistically is more than 15%. Many Americans are either under-employed or unemployed, and this has been going on for so long, that, for many, unemployment benefits are expiring. If these people's benefits run out, the statistics will show a lower unemployment rate, because the official statistics does not count people not collecting benefits. It also does not count individuals who owned small businesses, that had to go out of business, because owners of these types of businesses are generally not eligible for unemployment, While the unemployment numbers are presently down, the number of Americans actively fully employed is not very favorable or positive!
For those of us involved in real estate, we have witnessed near - record low mortgage interest rates, but that has been combined with somewhat stricter conditions to qualify for the best rate. Which is better, dramatically increasing home prices, just keeping up or slightly over - performing the inflation rate, or lower prices? I guess it depends if you are a buyer, or a seller?
The bottom line is that statistics are misleading. There is an old saying that the difference between a recession and a depression is, that it's a recession when it happens to someone else, and a depression when it happens to you. It is time for the American public to demand that our government officials stop partisan politics, and realistically address the economy and the joblessness issues, making those the overwhelming top priorities.
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