Monday, October 26, 2009

DOLLAR DOWN,METALS&OIL UP-WHAT DOES IT MEAN?

As of this morning, the US dollar fell to its lowest level since August 2008, while metals (led by gold and copper) keep moving up in price, and the price of crude oil has nudged upward once again. What is the meaning?
If you listen or read what the "professionals" say, you will probably be more confused than ever. The same company earnings report, for example, can be interpreted or "spun" in many ways. So here's my take. The weakness of the dollar indicates that the world community is becoming increasingly alarmed at the every growing US deficit, and seeing no end in sight. The real concern here is that commodities will stop using the US dollar as the benchmark for pricing, but will switch to another system. Since the US imports more than it exports, it means that consumers will find imported items more and more expensive. While this may benefit a few corporations, overall it is bad for both consumers and consumer confidence.
A bigger concern for most Americans is the creeping upward price of crude oil. Increased energy prices has the potential to cause a new round of inflation to be piled on top of our existing recession. The increasing US deficit exacerbates all other efforts to control or maintain a healthy economy.
The joblessness issue is the issue that should be "PRIORITY #1" because to improve the economy, the American public must have their confidence restored. Every effort must be made to retrain out of work individuals to get good employment, give incentives to businesses to hire, and re-create a "comfort" level. Old thinking, cliches, throwing good money after bad, bailout after bailout of greedy companies does not help with the joblessness crisis.And it is a crisis when the official unemployment rate is about 9.8%, and the estimated true joblessness rate is about 18-20%.
Why are metals going and commodities going up in price? Simple- to offset weakening dollar, concerns about US economy, and fear of upcoming inflation. We have to urge our elected officials to stop giving speeches, and start taking some real, well thought-out action!
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