PERHAPS SOME GOOD ECONOMIC NEWS, FINALLY

he 3rd Quarter Gross Domestic Product (GDP) figures came out, and the GDP grew by a better than anticipated 3.5%, the best GDP news and first growth in a year. Senate Democratic Majority Leader Harry Reid's office has announced preliminary agreement on BOTH extension of, and enhancement to, the 1st Time Homebuyers Credit. The agreement in the Senate calls for extension of the credit which was scheduled to expire at the end of November to April 30th contract dates, as long as the closing is by end of June. The enhancement to the credit calls for a lesser credit (but still a very significant $6,500 credit) to be given to people who wish to sell one house and purchase another, as long as they lived in their first house at least five years. While critics say that people would have bought houses anyway, even if there was no credit, common sense shows that since there was a spike in 1st time house sales during that period, saying "it would have happened anyway," may be no more than political posturing. Of course, for this to take effect, the full Senate and House have to agree, and the President needs to sign into law. If you believe, as I do, that it is better to help people than the big corporations and banks (many of which got into trouble because of either their own greed or mismanagement), then I urge you to let your government officials know that you want this credit extension and enhancement.
Studies indicate that an essential part of economic recovery is a health housing market. These steps will help create that during this crucial time period. Most economists believe that the worst of the recession will be over by the end of the 2nd quarter of 2010, and so this "shoulder" period that the credit will help solidify is truly urgent.
We must also urge our elected officials to address the joblessness rate, putting people back to work in retrained positions, to help the US regain its position among the elite economies of the world. We have been let to believe that this is a worldwide crisis, which by and large it is. However, nations like Norway have very low unemployment rates (estimates are between 1.8%- 2%) because they have positioned themselves toward energy independence. China is another example of a country which has benefited from the economic weakness of other nations during this time (for example, a Chinese company is in soloe discussions with Ford to purchase Volvo, and another Chinese company has discussed purchasing Hummer).
We need to build upon these promising bits of economic news, and urge that our government officials understand that our number one priority has to be restoring the economy, reducing joblessness, and a health housing market. If the US does not have that as a base, then there will be little chance of other programs succeeding. We, as a nation, cannot continue to have huge and growing deficits, without a sound plan for recovery.
We also need to let politicians know that we are tired of empty rhetoric, but need detailed thinking that considers both the long-term and short-term ramifications of our actions.

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It's Important to Extend & Expand First-time Homebuyers Credit!

As always, politicans are endlessly debating and posturing regarding the extention of the First Time Home Buyer's Credit, presently scheduled to expire on November 30th. It is interesting that there is still no extention, considering that most experts credit this Credit with reinvigorating a badly sagging real estate market. Nationally, it is estimated that home prices have now come back- to 2003 prices. The third quarter of 2009 actually showed an increase in sales, in most parts of the country.

However, there is still much uncertainty in today's economy. Polls show consumer confidence has not yet been restored, and that the major concerns are the recession and job security (high joblessness rate). Historically, a healthy housing market is essential to a properly functioning economy. While the stock market has come back more than 25% from its recent low, it is still far below the level of a couple of years ago. The extention of the housing credit is an effective way to keep the housing market stable.

At this time, we not only need an extention of the 1st Time Housing Credit, but an expansion of the program, so that more individuals are covered. Items that should be expanded include: Income requirements (allowable income should be increased); Broader, looser definition of 1st time Buyer should be utilized; Partial Credit should be considered for anyone purchasing more expensive house; etc.

I urge everyone to contact their elected officials as soon as possible, and urge them to both extend and expand the Home Buyers Credit.

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HOUSING MARKET UPDATE

According to data released today, housing sales have now risen in the US for three months in a row. Home prices in most areas have also stopped their decline, and in most areas are nudging upward. Many factors are probably responsible for this including: the 1st time buyers credit; low mortgage interest rates; polls showing slight improvement in consumer confidence regarding the economy; economic projections for the worst of the recession to be ending in either the 1st or 2nd quarter of 2010; a slight increase in availability of mortgage money; an improvement in stock market performance; etc.

However, not all areas of the country have seen the same trend. Real estate marketing and sales remains an entity peculiar to local areas. This means that one community may see its real estate market rebound before another, just as the drop in the market started in certain areas before others.

We are entering into a period where there may never be a better time to purchase a house. Of course, only those who are somewhat financially secure, with good credit, will be able to take advantage of this. And the high joblessness rate combined with little optimism on that front in the short-term, have created the major stumbling block to the housing market recovery.

The most important way to help the housing market is to lower the joblessness rate. Those truly interested in a timely economic recovery should urge our political leaders to make their #1 priority!

If you interested in further discussion about housing or any aspect of real estate, please visit my real estate blog at: www.portwashingtonlongislandhouses.activerain.com, or my Real Estate website: www.portwashingtonlongislandhouses.com.

Info on my other businesses and services can be found at: www.rgbconsults.weebly.com

DOLLAR DOWN,METALS&OIL UP-WHAT DOES IT MEAN?

As of this morning, the US dollar fell to its lowest level since August 2008, while metals (led by gold and copper) keep moving up in price, and the price of crude oil has nudged upward once again. What is the meaning?
If you listen or read what the "professionals" say, you will probably be more confused than ever. The same company earnings report, for example, can be interpreted or "spun" in many ways. So here's my take. The weakness of the dollar indicates that the world community is becoming increasingly alarmed at the every growing US deficit, and seeing no end in sight. The real concern here is that commodities will stop using the US dollar as the benchmark for pricing, but will switch to another system. Since the US imports more than it exports, it means that consumers will find imported items more and more expensive. While this may benefit a few corporations, overall it is bad for both consumers and consumer confidence.
A bigger concern for most Americans is the creeping upward price of crude oil. Increased energy prices has the potential to cause a new round of inflation to be piled on top of our existing recession. The increasing US deficit exacerbates all other efforts to control or maintain a healthy economy.
The joblessness issue is the issue that should be "PRIORITY #1" because to improve the economy, the American public must have their confidence restored. Every effort must be made to retrain out of work individuals to get good employment, give incentives to businesses to hire, and re-create a "comfort" level. Old thinking, cliches, throwing good money after bad, bailout after bailout of greedy companies does not help with the joblessness crisis.And it is a crisis when the official unemployment rate is about 9.8%, and the estimated true joblessness rate is about 18-20%.
Why are metals going and commodities going up in price? Simple- to offset weakening dollar, concerns about US economy, and fear of upcoming inflation. We have to urge our elected officials to stop giving speeches, and start taking some real, well thought-out action!
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Today's Real Estate Market

Everyone has an opinion about the real estate market, and what affects sales and prices. A historic view of the housing market indicates that real estate is cyclical, and while the decrease in prices has been large, it is by no means the first time we have had a market downturn. Adverse economic conditions impact the real estate market. Amongst the causes are: inflation; recession; mortgage interest rates; ease of acquiring a mortgage; stock market factors; tax incentives; employment/ job security; and consumer confidence in the overall economy.
Today, we are in a market where many of the above listed situations are working together and keeping the real estate market down. However, probably the most important factor in terms of there being a true turnaround is the public's confidence in job security. Polls/ surveys indicate that the public confidence in job security today is at or near an all-time low. The good sign, however, is that recent corporate earnings reports for the third quarter have been better than most expected. If the news remains promising, there should be a gradual beginning of the recreation of jobs, and the joblessness rate should decline.
Today's 9.8% unemployment rate combined with what's considered the true joblessness rate of approximately 18% has created a wait-and-see attitude among many potential buyers. The government's First Time Buyer's Credit, scheduled to expire at the end of November, helped the real estate market in the last three or four months, but there is presently an uncertainty as to whether or not the government will take any steps to extend this successful program.
Please read my extensive real estate blogs at: www.portwashingtonlongislandhouses.activerain.com, for an analysis and real estate market point-of-view. Also feel free to go to my real estate website at: www.portwashingtonlongislandhouses.com for lots of informative information and data.

Today's Economy- Not Local & National, But Global

We look around us and see numerous town and city governments in dire financial conditions. States are having similar, if not in same cases, even worse challenges. Our national deficit is so large that it will not be repaid for generations. And we're adding to that deficit daily.
By and large, we are not alone in this situation. Almost all nations (except China) are having similar woes. There has not only been a drop in the Dow, but in stock markets around the globe. Gold prices have skyrocketed, and recently oil prices are beginning to rise again. Every time we hear a bit of good economic news, we then hear a bit of bad. And then, each side has to "spin" the information to their point of view.
So, what do we need to do? I believe that the most important thing we need to address is job creation and joblessness. Officially, we claim that the unemployment rate is 9.8%. But that does not include people who are no longer looking, people who no longer qualify for benefits, people who've taken some sort of part-time or lesser employment. When that is calculated in, the rate is closer to 18-20%. Governments need to address that issue now, and make that the number 1 priority. Only when the public regains its confidence will consumers begin once again to spend at the rate that the economy needs.
What can government do? Firstly, focus and use some common sense approaches. Invest in infrastructure, and give businesses incentives only if they hire and maintain workers. Secondly, retrain workers from certain stagnant industries to industries that need workers. Thirdly, create an "idea bank," so that people can brainstorm and find better ways to get back to work. Fourth, address employment and energy together, by giving incentives for alternative energy- related industries, thus creating employment opportunities in those fields.
Let's get away from rewarding incompetence. A bank makes bad loans due to a number of factors. Some are unavoidable, such as when people lose their jobs and can't repay the loan. However, in many cases, the bad decisions were made as a result of greed, etc. Don't reward those banks. Force those people to repay all borrowed funds before they can pay excessive bonuses and salaries -- make bonuses and salaries achievement incentive based. Don't punish small shareholders/ stockholders, by bankrupting these large companies, because all that does is exacerbate the situation by causing pensions, etc. to drop in value, and hurts small investors and mutual fund holders.
Enough of trickle down economics. Most people do not benefit as much from a rising stock market as they do from economic and employment stability, currency stability, and stable, affordable energy costs.
Enough of politicians making empty promises such as, "I won't raise taxes, fees, and I'll balance the budget." Ask, how, and for specifics!
Is this easy? No! Is it do-able? Yes. Especially if the American public woke up and said those famous words from the movie, NETWORK, "I'm mad as hell and I'm not going to take it anymore."

NEGOTIATING WITH HOTELS

When one wants to arrange a meeting, conference or convention at a specific location, it is important to follow certain basic techniques:
(1) Utilize a professionally prepared RFP and submit to several properties, and let the properties know that they are competing.
(2) Make sure that you approach this negotiation from a "win-win" point of view. Know both your needs, and what the hotel's requirements are. Negotiate your entire package together-- i.e. Room rate, Food&Beverage,Meetings&Meeting Rooms;AV;Comps;Throw-ins, etc.
(3)Know the restrictions of your budget, and let the hotels know that there are financial limits.
(4)If you need something other than what they are showing, ask the property if they can accomodate you.
(5)Never lie to a hotel. Hotels know the history of your group, so if you aren't frank, you'll lose!
(6)Understand timing. When is your meeting? Are you at all flexible?
(7)Ask the hotel what they would recommend that would help both the property and you.

These are just a few of the very basic ABC's of Hotel Negotiations. If you want or need more information, or if you feel a Professional & Experienced Conference & Convention Planner might be helpful (most of the time a professional can save you time, money. and your sanity!), then go to my website at: www.rgbconsults.weebly.com, or e-mail me at rgbrody@aol.com.

What a Good Consultant Can Do For You!

Is hiring a consultant worth the cost? What exactly can a good consultant do that I can't do myself? A good consultant is NOT ONLY worth the cost, but should provide an excellent ROI! Make sure that before you hire any consultant that you fully discuss all issues, including: all aspects of fees; what's included; what will be done; is a final report included?; what is the degree of expertise, experience and actual "hands-on" experience; how comfortable does the consultant make you feel?
Make sure you make it clear in advance what you expect from any consultant. Assume nothing. Ask probing and difficult questions. Ask the consultant to fully explain why you should hire him instead of another.
Be very wary if the consultant answers you in generic "mumble-jumble," and a lot of "pseudo-technical" jargon, and is unwilling to explain in plain English terms. Make sure that the consultant has good communication skills.
A good consultant should be able to either save you money, make you more efficient or more effective, improve your operations, be able to analyze and evaluate, and have a thorough understanding of what is expected as well as what is needed. Beware of any consultant who simply "yeses" and tries to please and placate. A consultant must be able to confront difficult issues and be willing to "tell you what you NEED to know, NOT just what you want to hear!"