The preliminary figures have been released regarding Black Friday, and depending on how you wish to view it, the numbers are either bad news, so-so news, or good news. Apparently more Americans purchased on Black Friday, but their average spending was down about 5-10% for the day, and the total retail sales were either flat, or slightly lower. Since today is so-called Cyber-Monday, we do not know yet what these numbers will show, but more retailers are offering Cyber-Monday sales than ever before!
So, what does that mean? Well, the good news is, that despite the ongoing recession, despite the high joblessness rate, despite the credit tightening (many of the larger banks have tightened, eliminated, reduced credit lines, and increased credit card interest rates charged, while changing their installment payment features, thus requiring higher minimum payments), despite the fact that merchants are being quite conservative about inventory-on-hand, more Americans are still buying gifts, and the total spent has not been reduced significantly. Also, many retailers began their promotions early or are stretching them out over a longer period of time, which makes the Black Friday numbers even more positive! Granted last year's holiday season was not a robust one for retailers, but considering the cost-saving measures many companies have implemented, I feel the overall indicators are positive ones.
I am guessing that the Cyber-Monday results will either parallel the stores, or be slightly better than the store results. These numbers might be slightly skewed also because of many sites stretching this sale period out over a longer period of time. I am of the belief that there will be a higher than usual number of last-minute shoppers this holiday season, but that retailers will have to be creative as well as use discounting to attract more shoppers. I also feel that consumers will still purchase for the holidays, but that the average spending per shopper will be somewhat lower than in the past.
Since many manufacturers are suffering like retailers and consumers, many manufacturers are offering discounts and/ or incentives to retailers at a much greater rate this season than in the past. That is also a factor in the lower consumer purchasing averages.
Having gone to a few stores, malls, and warehouse clubs both on Black Friday as well as on Saturday, it is obvious that this season is being kinder to some stores than others, and to some malls than others. On Black Friday, WalMart was packed for the Early Bird sales, butr much quieter the rest of the day. The store Friday afternoon looked like it must have been "packed and ransacked" in the morning, but was simply messy and not fully re-stocked on Friday afternoon. The warehouse clubs seemed to be doing business as usual on Friday! On Saturday, I went to two different malls, and while one mall seemed very quiet, the other was very busy. Some stores were obviously much busier than others. Yet, for example, the Apple Store at one mall seemed relatively quiet, while at the other mall was busy.
We need to start adopting the "half-full" instead of "half-empty" philosophy, or this recession will stretch out and linger longer than it would on its own. All too often, too many of the so-called "experts" analyze each piece of data independently, without trying to understand some of the many causes. Daily discussions of the prices of gold, oil, and the stock indexes. are as misguided as people looking for "quick kills" in purchasing stocks rather than long-term outlooks. Historically, investors who use "dollar-cost averaging" have out-performed most others, because they do not fall victim to normal and abnormal market swings. We all need to "sit back and chill out" and look at things through a broader window, and figure out the best long-term strategies.
Let's remember that when George Bush became President he inherited a budget surplus. By the time he left office eight years later, instead of a surplus there was a $400 Billion plus deficit. A little more than ten months after President Obama took office, the US deficit now exceeds $1.4 Trillion. We need to understand that deficit financing has long-term impacts and ramifications, and the US cannot simply keep spending without a plan for repaying it. That is why our dollar is so weak, even though the recession is a world-wide challenge, not just an American one.
Weak housimg markets, high foreclosure rates, high joblessness rates, etc., cannot and are not balanced out solely by spending and low interest rates. America must reconfigure our economy to make it stronger and more productive! We need to get people back to work, and keep them working. That should be the major thrust of our government's activities now-- on the Federal, State and Local Levels. Demand that from your government leaders!
FOLLOW ME ON TWITTER: @rgbrody (www.twitter.com/rgbrody)
FOLLOW MY BLOG AT: http://tinyurl.com/rgbstake
MY WEBSITES: Real Estate: http://tinyurl.com/pwlire
Consulting: http://tinyurl.com/rgbcons
Enjoy the Home of the RICH IDEAS, + RICH BRODY'S TAKE, w/ Blogs about RE, negotiations, finance, etc., Leadership Planning, politics, etc. While there are many points of view, this blog is intended to "cut through the spin," and provide a unique, innovative and provocative insight into current issues. The intent of the blog is to be updated several times per week. Real estate info: http://PortWashingtonLongIslandRealEstate.com and the PLAN2LEAD website: http://plan2lead.net
Monday, November 30, 2009
Wednesday, November 25, 2009
THANKSGIVING THANKS
Thanksgiving 2009 is a sadder year than most for many Americans. With the U.S. and most of the world in a deep recession, with high unemployment, with over 100,000 Americans still in "harms way" in battles in Iraq and Afghanistan, I believe it is more important than ever to step back and give thanks for our many blessings.
We should be grateful for the fact that Americans have more freedoms than almost any other place on the planet. We have the right to protest. We have the right to criticize our government. We have the right to elect our political leaders, and to vote out any politician that we are unhappy with. We have the ability to force politicians to better represent us by being vocal in our support or opposition of any policy.
Only in America, where we have free and democratic elections, do our citizens have the right to vote, and yet, in most elections, less than half of the eligible voters exercise that right. Here in Nassau County, NY, they are still counting the last of the votes in our County Supervisor race, and after over 240,000 votes have been counted, there is only a 160 vote difference. Now, when you consider that less than half the eligible voters actually voted, we can clearly say that whoever wins certainly has no mandate. But, we should be thankful that we have the rights!
Only in America, can I or anyone else, have the right to publish a blog, and as long as nothing illegal, libelous or slanderous is said, not worry about the legal ramifications! Only in America, can a former unknown become "famous" from a TV competition although finishing second, and then perform a controversial act on television that forced ABC to decide to cancel his morning GMA appearance, only to have CBS decide to have him on BOTH their morning, as well as their late night Letterman shows.
Only in America can we dwell on the negatives of the economy, and at the same time have Tiffany announce both revenues and earnings that far exceeded expectations.
Only in America, can we talk about the difficulty this year in keeping food pantries stocked sufficiently to feed the many feeling the pinch from the economy, and at the same time have Black Friday Christmas sales promotions all over the media.
Only in America can we talk about health care, yet have various solutions discussed that only address parts of the problem, while in some cases not considering the ramifications of some of the "solutions."
Only in America can we talk about justice for all, yet the justice that the wealthy, middle class, and poor enjoy is certainly often NOT the same justice!
Yet, with all its faults, we are lucky to be living in America. Here we can complain, we can argue, we can be charitable. Americans are amongst the most charitable people in the world, and in times of distress, have a long history of coming through. On this Thanksgiving holiday, we should all give thanks that we live in the U.S.
We should be grateful for the fact that Americans have more freedoms than almost any other place on the planet. We have the right to protest. We have the right to criticize our government. We have the right to elect our political leaders, and to vote out any politician that we are unhappy with. We have the ability to force politicians to better represent us by being vocal in our support or opposition of any policy.
Only in America, where we have free and democratic elections, do our citizens have the right to vote, and yet, in most elections, less than half of the eligible voters exercise that right. Here in Nassau County, NY, they are still counting the last of the votes in our County Supervisor race, and after over 240,000 votes have been counted, there is only a 160 vote difference. Now, when you consider that less than half the eligible voters actually voted, we can clearly say that whoever wins certainly has no mandate. But, we should be thankful that we have the rights!
Only in America, can I or anyone else, have the right to publish a blog, and as long as nothing illegal, libelous or slanderous is said, not worry about the legal ramifications! Only in America, can a former unknown become "famous" from a TV competition although finishing second, and then perform a controversial act on television that forced ABC to decide to cancel his morning GMA appearance, only to have CBS decide to have him on BOTH their morning, as well as their late night Letterman shows.
Only in America can we dwell on the negatives of the economy, and at the same time have Tiffany announce both revenues and earnings that far exceeded expectations.
Only in America, can we talk about the difficulty this year in keeping food pantries stocked sufficiently to feed the many feeling the pinch from the economy, and at the same time have Black Friday Christmas sales promotions all over the media.
Only in America can we talk about health care, yet have various solutions discussed that only address parts of the problem, while in some cases not considering the ramifications of some of the "solutions."
Only in America can we talk about justice for all, yet the justice that the wealthy, middle class, and poor enjoy is certainly often NOT the same justice!
Yet, with all its faults, we are lucky to be living in America. Here we can complain, we can argue, we can be charitable. Americans are amongst the most charitable people in the world, and in times of distress, have a long history of coming through. On this Thanksgiving holiday, we should all give thanks that we live in the U.S.
Tuesday, November 24, 2009
HOUSING NEWS UPDATE
The most recent housing report showed that sales for October 2009 were up 10.1% over October 2008. While that is certainly promising news, it must be considered in light of a few factors. The first factor was, of course, that October 2008 numbers were so dismal that even with an increase, there is plenty of room for improvement. Then, we must remember that some closings last month occurred as a result of the First Time Housing Credit, and the uncertainty at that time over whether it would be extended (remember it was originally set to expire at end of November). The continuation of historically low mortgage rates has certainly also helped. In addition, while sales were up, the average price of a house sold last month versus a year before is down, so, in other words, houses are still selling for less than in the past.
The good news are indications are that the worst of the recession is probably past us, consumer confidence seems to have improved slightly, mortgage rates should remain low for the foreseeable future (and hopefully the government will apply pressures on lenders to lend!), home prices are more affordable, the Home buying credit has been BOTH extend and enhanced, and most economists are calling for the U.S. economy to improve somewhat throughout 2010. The less-happy news is the high joblessness rate, the uncertainty in the economy, less than stellar public consumer confidence, and a seemingly prevailing attitude that "there is no rush" to do anything, and the overall wait-and-see attitude.
We have gone from a decade of a "seller's market" in the housing market, to a mixed market, to a buyer's market (where unfortunately NOT enough buyers are taking advantage - - - either being unwilling, afraid, or unable to). The real estate market has always been cyclical, and this market is the same in that way. We are probably at or near the bottom of the market now, and 2010 should probably see the beginning of the recovery. Those in a position to take advantage should do so now, because the combination of tax advantages, low prices and low mortgage rates have brought the true cost of home purchasing down significantly.
The industry and those interested in having a sound and robust housing market should implore their elected officials to address the most pressing economic issues now --- joblessness (and job creation), consumer confidence, responsible economic policies, and continued incentives that benefits consumers instead of just large corporations!
FOLLOW ME ON TWITTER: @rgbrody (www.twitter.com/rgbrody
CHECK OUT MY REAL ESTATE SITE: http://tinyurl.com/pwlire
LEARN WHAT A CONSULTING PRO CAN DO FOR YOU: http://tinyurl.com/rgbcons
FOLLOW MY BLOG UPDATES (updated several times each week):
The most recent housing report showed that sales for October 2009 were up 10.1% over October 2008. While that is certainly promising news, it must be considered in light of a few factors. The first factor was, of course, that October 2008 numbers were so dismal that even with an increase, there is plenty of room for improvement. Then, we must remember that some closings last month occurred as a result of the First Time Housing Credit, and the uncertainty at that time over whether it would be extended (remember it was originally set to expire at end of November). The continuation of historically low mortgage rates has certainly also helped. In addition, while sales were up, the average price of a house sold last month versus a year before is down, so, in other words, houses are still selling for less than in the past.
The good news are indications are that the worst of the recession is probably past us, consumer confidence seems to have improved slightly, mortgage rates should remain low for the foreseeable future (and hopefully the government will apply pressures on lenders to lend!), home prices are more affordable, the Home buying credit has been BOTH extend and enhanced, and most economists are calling for the U.S. economy to improve somewhat throughout 2010. The less-happy news is the high joblessness rate, the uncertainty in the economy, less than stellar public consumer confidence, and a seemingly prevailing attitude that "there is no rush" to do anything, and the overall wait-and-see attitude.
We have gone from a decade of a "seller's market" in the housing market, to a mixed market, to a buyer's market (where unfortunately NOT enough buyers are taking advantage - - - either being unwilling, afraid, or unable to). The real estate market has always been cyclical, and this market is the same in that way. We are probably at or near the bottom of the market now, and 2010 should probably see the beginning of the recovery. Those in a position to take advantage should do so now, because the combination of tax advantages, low prices and low mortgage rates have brought the true cost of home purchasing down significantly.
The industry and those interested in having a sound and robust housing market should implore their elected officials to address the most pressing economic issues now --- joblessness (and job creation), consumer confidence, responsible economic policies, and continued incentives that benefits consumers instead of just large corporations!
FOLLOW ME ON TWITTER: @rgbrody (www.twitter.com/rgbrody
CHECK OUT MY REAL ESTATE SITE: http://tinyurl.com/pwlire
LEARN WHAT A CONSULTING PRO CAN DO FOR YOU: http://tinyurl.com/rgbcons
FOLLOW MY BLOG UPDATES (updated several times each week):
http://tinyurl.com/rgbstake
The good news are indications are that the worst of the recession is probably past us, consumer confidence seems to have improved slightly, mortgage rates should remain low for the foreseeable future (and hopefully the government will apply pressures on lenders to lend!), home prices are more affordable, the Home buying credit has been BOTH extend and enhanced, and most economists are calling for the U.S. economy to improve somewhat throughout 2010. The less-happy news is the high joblessness rate, the uncertainty in the economy, less than stellar public consumer confidence, and a seemingly prevailing attitude that "there is no rush" to do anything, and the overall wait-and-see attitude.
We have gone from a decade of a "seller's market" in the housing market, to a mixed market, to a buyer's market (where unfortunately NOT enough buyers are taking advantage - - - either being unwilling, afraid, or unable to). The real estate market has always been cyclical, and this market is the same in that way. We are probably at or near the bottom of the market now, and 2010 should probably see the beginning of the recovery. Those in a position to take advantage should do so now, because the combination of tax advantages, low prices and low mortgage rates have brought the true cost of home purchasing down significantly.
The industry and those interested in having a sound and robust housing market should implore their elected officials to address the most pressing economic issues now --- joblessness (and job creation), consumer confidence, responsible economic policies, and continued incentives that benefits consumers instead of just large corporations!
FOLLOW ME ON TWITTER: @rgbrody (www.twitter.com/rgbrody
CHECK OUT MY REAL ESTATE SITE: http://tinyurl.com/pwlire
LEARN WHAT A CONSULTING PRO CAN DO FOR YOU: http://tinyurl.com/rgbcons
FOLLOW MY BLOG UPDATES (updated several times each week):
The most recent housing report showed that sales for October 2009 were up 10.1% over October 2008. While that is certainly promising news, it must be considered in light of a few factors. The first factor was, of course, that October 2008 numbers were so dismal that even with an increase, there is plenty of room for improvement. Then, we must remember that some closings last month occurred as a result of the First Time Housing Credit, and the uncertainty at that time over whether it would be extended (remember it was originally set to expire at end of November). The continuation of historically low mortgage rates has certainly also helped. In addition, while sales were up, the average price of a house sold last month versus a year before is down, so, in other words, houses are still selling for less than in the past.
The good news are indications are that the worst of the recession is probably past us, consumer confidence seems to have improved slightly, mortgage rates should remain low for the foreseeable future (and hopefully the government will apply pressures on lenders to lend!), home prices are more affordable, the Home buying credit has been BOTH extend and enhanced, and most economists are calling for the U.S. economy to improve somewhat throughout 2010. The less-happy news is the high joblessness rate, the uncertainty in the economy, less than stellar public consumer confidence, and a seemingly prevailing attitude that "there is no rush" to do anything, and the overall wait-and-see attitude.
We have gone from a decade of a "seller's market" in the housing market, to a mixed market, to a buyer's market (where unfortunately NOT enough buyers are taking advantage - - - either being unwilling, afraid, or unable to). The real estate market has always been cyclical, and this market is the same in that way. We are probably at or near the bottom of the market now, and 2010 should probably see the beginning of the recovery. Those in a position to take advantage should do so now, because the combination of tax advantages, low prices and low mortgage rates have brought the true cost of home purchasing down significantly.
The industry and those interested in having a sound and robust housing market should implore their elected officials to address the most pressing economic issues now --- joblessness (and job creation), consumer confidence, responsible economic policies, and continued incentives that benefits consumers instead of just large corporations!
FOLLOW ME ON TWITTER: @rgbrody (www.twitter.com/rgbrody
CHECK OUT MY REAL ESTATE SITE: http://tinyurl.com/pwlire
LEARN WHAT A CONSULTING PRO CAN DO FOR YOU: http://tinyurl.com/rgbcons
FOLLOW MY BLOG UPDATES (updated several times each week):
http://tinyurl.com/rgbstake
Monday, November 23, 2009
ECONOMIC NEWS,JOBS&HEALTH-What it all means?
Over the weekend, and this morning, there was a lot of news and reports bantered about regarding the US and World economies, joblessness predictions, and the proposed Health Plan. As some anticipated, house sales in October were up 10.1% over last year. Any increase is always good news, but since last year's number were so dismal, it's not as good news as it might seem. But, at least it's somewhat encouraging! Several sources have predicted that the worst of the joblessness numbers will be over by the end of the first quarter of 2010, but not before the rate rises somewhat to approximately 10.5%. These same sources are predicting a slight decrease in joblessness throughout the balance of 2010, and the consensus prediction for the year-end 2010 is approximately 9.6%. It is probably an indication of where we are at now that many are cheering a 9.6% unemployment rate as good news! The consensus among economists is that we are nearing the end of the recession, and the recession will end by the second or third quarter of 2010, and would then gradually improve based on other economic news and conditions.
The Senate, voting along straight party lines, voted 60-39 (Who was that 1 Republican who didn't vote?) to permit the health plan discussion to come to the Senate floor. However, at least 4 Democrats (who have been labeled by the media as Moderates) have stated that they voted to let the bill be discussed, but are opposed to the "Public Option." The media is also reporting that the liberal bloc of the Democratic Party has said that if the "Public Option" is removed, they believe the plan will be too watered- down, and they would then have to oppose the bill.
It is important to understand that because of certain peculiarities in the Senate's rules, that it takes 60 votes to pass this type of legislation, not just a majority. Since, to date, the Republicans have opposed the bill unanimously, it would take ALL Democrats and the 2 Independents voting Yea to advance the legislation. Further complicating the issue, is the politics involved since one-third of the Senate, and all of the House, is up for election in November 2010. That is the reason that the pro-plan advocates have been trying to get this accomplished as soon as possible, because politics will become an even greater factor the closer to the mid-term elections we get!
Proponents of this health legislation state that it is necessary to cover as many Americans as possible, control medical costs, and make the health care industry more responsible and fair. Opponents complain that the legislation proposed is excessively expensive, legislates medical care policy, and does not rein in the true causes of escalating medical costs. Opponents state that is essential to cap non-medical aspects of medical liability cases, permit insurance companies to be sold nationally to create "economies of scale," bring down the costs of drugs, reduce/ eliminate waste including excessive tests done(because doctors feel they need to protect themselves in a litiganous society).
The reality is that there are truths and fallacies on both sides of the political aisle, and unless our politicians magically begin to act as statesman, we will not get a good plan that works and accomplishes many needed areas. It is essential to remember that the costs and numbers that are put forward and publicized must be taken with a "grain of salt," because historically costs are higher and revenues are lower than the advance projections we are given.
In a previous blog, I discussed what I felt were the most important factors that needed to be discussed. Nobody has all the answers nor all the solutions, but I hope that whatever decision is made is responsible, effective and considers all the ramifications of their decisions. It is hard to believe that a 2,000 page piece of legislation has not been loaded with "pork" to get it passed! The challenge, as usual, is that most politicians consider their primary "job" running for office and getting elected, rather than being a statesman for the public good.
FOLLOW ME ON TWITTER: @rgbrody (www.twitter.com/rgbrody
GO TO MY CONSULTING SITE: http://tinyurl.com/rgbcons
The Senate, voting along straight party lines, voted 60-39 (Who was that 1 Republican who didn't vote?) to permit the health plan discussion to come to the Senate floor. However, at least 4 Democrats (who have been labeled by the media as Moderates) have stated that they voted to let the bill be discussed, but are opposed to the "Public Option." The media is also reporting that the liberal bloc of the Democratic Party has said that if the "Public Option" is removed, they believe the plan will be too watered- down, and they would then have to oppose the bill.
It is important to understand that because of certain peculiarities in the Senate's rules, that it takes 60 votes to pass this type of legislation, not just a majority. Since, to date, the Republicans have opposed the bill unanimously, it would take ALL Democrats and the 2 Independents voting Yea to advance the legislation. Further complicating the issue, is the politics involved since one-third of the Senate, and all of the House, is up for election in November 2010. That is the reason that the pro-plan advocates have been trying to get this accomplished as soon as possible, because politics will become an even greater factor the closer to the mid-term elections we get!
Proponents of this health legislation state that it is necessary to cover as many Americans as possible, control medical costs, and make the health care industry more responsible and fair. Opponents complain that the legislation proposed is excessively expensive, legislates medical care policy, and does not rein in the true causes of escalating medical costs. Opponents state that is essential to cap non-medical aspects of medical liability cases, permit insurance companies to be sold nationally to create "economies of scale," bring down the costs of drugs, reduce/ eliminate waste including excessive tests done(because doctors feel they need to protect themselves in a litiganous society).
The reality is that there are truths and fallacies on both sides of the political aisle, and unless our politicians magically begin to act as statesman, we will not get a good plan that works and accomplishes many needed areas. It is essential to remember that the costs and numbers that are put forward and publicized must be taken with a "grain of salt," because historically costs are higher and revenues are lower than the advance projections we are given.
In a previous blog, I discussed what I felt were the most important factors that needed to be discussed. Nobody has all the answers nor all the solutions, but I hope that whatever decision is made is responsible, effective and considers all the ramifications of their decisions. It is hard to believe that a 2,000 page piece of legislation has not been loaded with "pork" to get it passed! The challenge, as usual, is that most politicians consider their primary "job" running for office and getting elected, rather than being a statesman for the public good.
FOLLOW ME ON TWITTER: @rgbrody (www.twitter.com/rgbrody
GO TO MY CONSULTING SITE: http://tinyurl.com/rgbcons
Friday, November 20, 2009
America's Health Plan
Everyone, whether Republican or Democrat, conservative or liberal, would agree to a couple of things about our health care in the U.S.: (1) The costs have escalated dramatically, and continue to rise at an alarming rate even during a recession; (2) All Americans should receive adequate health care. From that point on, the politicians, "spinners," pundents, advocates, etc. take over, and create opposing plans, none of which address both of the things that they originally agreed upon.
The plan passed by the House, and what appears to be the plan being proposed in the Senate, differ in many major ways. Yet, neither of them addresses the two basic issues listed above! The House plan passed was approximately 2,000 pages of verbal legal jargon, that few representatives read in its entirety. Most representatives assign that "heavy lifing" to their aides, who then summarize the plan to the Congressman. The very fact that the plan was passed almost entirely by one party and opposed by the other, indicates that politics, rather trying to create the best plan, is the rule! The Senate is now bringing up a plan that all the details have NOT been disclosed, and needs 60 votes to even get to the Senate floor to be discussed.
The American public hears the health proposals via the "spin-meisters" and politicians and advocates, who only state part of the issue. The Republicans discuss the malpractice issue (and its related costs) and the Democrats avoid that issue because politically they don't want to offend the trial lawyers. The Democrats discuss mandating coverage, and the Republicans object to mandates and the related costs. The Democrats speak of taxing big earners in one version or large companies in another, without discussing the ramifications. The Republicans avoid discussing how to address adequate health care for all, and instead object to the costs of the Democrats plans. An objective observer would say that BOTH sides are "spinning" both the numbers and the plans to make their ideas seem better.
In other countries, there are public health programs. A dentist friend of mine from London recently developed an illness, which was taken care of expeditiously and effectively, because, as he put it, he had "private insurance." In the Bahamas, there are both public and private plans. Canada has had universal health care for many years. However, these countries have far smaller populations that in the U.S., and plans that work in one country may not work in all.
We need to develop a different frame of mind regarding many issues related to health care if we are to accomplish the important task of achieving the two worthy goals stated at the beginning of this blog. (1) Health insurance must be able to be sold across state lines. That would increase competition, offer more alternatives, and somewhat lower costs. (2) We have to cap non-medical malpractice liability payouts, so as to reduce overall health care costs, (3) We have to be much smarter in terms of forcing unfunded mandates on employers, hospitals, local governments, etc ., (4) We have to have a more efficient drug creation and review policy, to reduce both the costs of bringing drugs to market, and increase usage of generics, (5) We have to curb the use of the huge amount of unnecessary testing done, much of which is done by doctors to protect themselves from medical malpractice liability, (6) We need to reduce government waste, by the continuous use by governments of multiple, off duplicative layers of beaurocracy, (7) We must permit whatever economies of scale can be effectively used to reduce costs, (8) We must create a better electronic system where x-rays, tests, etc., taken in one locale, are easily available to licensed professionals elsewhere, (9) A greater emphasis on prevention is essential, (10) A fair evaluation as to when alternative methodologies might be an important part of the medical puzzle, and most importantly, (11) WE MUST "THINK OUTSIDE THE BOX."
The American public cannot let the politicians do "their thing" with an issue such as this, where any plan approved will most likely be a hodge-podge, mish-mosh, expensive and eventually dysfunctional and unworkable program, that we must simply reform again in a few years. This is too important - - - let's get it right the first time!!!
FOLLOW ME ON TWITTER: @rgbrody (www.twitter.com/rgbrody
The plan passed by the House, and what appears to be the plan being proposed in the Senate, differ in many major ways. Yet, neither of them addresses the two basic issues listed above! The House plan passed was approximately 2,000 pages of verbal legal jargon, that few representatives read in its entirety. Most representatives assign that "heavy lifing" to their aides, who then summarize the plan to the Congressman. The very fact that the plan was passed almost entirely by one party and opposed by the other, indicates that politics, rather trying to create the best plan, is the rule! The Senate is now bringing up a plan that all the details have NOT been disclosed, and needs 60 votes to even get to the Senate floor to be discussed.
The American public hears the health proposals via the "spin-meisters" and politicians and advocates, who only state part of the issue. The Republicans discuss the malpractice issue (and its related costs) and the Democrats avoid that issue because politically they don't want to offend the trial lawyers. The Democrats discuss mandating coverage, and the Republicans object to mandates and the related costs. The Democrats speak of taxing big earners in one version or large companies in another, without discussing the ramifications. The Republicans avoid discussing how to address adequate health care for all, and instead object to the costs of the Democrats plans. An objective observer would say that BOTH sides are "spinning" both the numbers and the plans to make their ideas seem better.
In other countries, there are public health programs. A dentist friend of mine from London recently developed an illness, which was taken care of expeditiously and effectively, because, as he put it, he had "private insurance." In the Bahamas, there are both public and private plans. Canada has had universal health care for many years. However, these countries have far smaller populations that in the U.S., and plans that work in one country may not work in all.
We need to develop a different frame of mind regarding many issues related to health care if we are to accomplish the important task of achieving the two worthy goals stated at the beginning of this blog. (1) Health insurance must be able to be sold across state lines. That would increase competition, offer more alternatives, and somewhat lower costs. (2) We have to cap non-medical malpractice liability payouts, so as to reduce overall health care costs, (3) We have to be much smarter in terms of forcing unfunded mandates on employers, hospitals, local governments, etc ., (4) We have to have a more efficient drug creation and review policy, to reduce both the costs of bringing drugs to market, and increase usage of generics, (5) We have to curb the use of the huge amount of unnecessary testing done, much of which is done by doctors to protect themselves from medical malpractice liability, (6) We need to reduce government waste, by the continuous use by governments of multiple, off duplicative layers of beaurocracy, (7) We must permit whatever economies of scale can be effectively used to reduce costs, (8) We must create a better electronic system where x-rays, tests, etc., taken in one locale, are easily available to licensed professionals elsewhere, (9) A greater emphasis on prevention is essential, (10) A fair evaluation as to when alternative methodologies might be an important part of the medical puzzle, and most importantly, (11) WE MUST "THINK OUTSIDE THE BOX."
The American public cannot let the politicians do "their thing" with an issue such as this, where any plan approved will most likely be a hodge-podge, mish-mosh, expensive and eventually dysfunctional and unworkable program, that we must simply reform again in a few years. This is too important - - - let's get it right the first time!!!
FOLLOW ME ON TWITTER: @rgbrody (www.twitter.com/rgbrody
Thursday, November 19, 2009
The Art&Science of Hotel Negotiations
All too often, organizations and corporations end up paying far more than they need to because they do not follow the basic rules of hotel negotiations:
(1) Always use a comprehensive Request for Proposal (RFP). This RFP should include ALL anticipated needs of the group, including approximate number of guest rooms, meeting room utilization, Food & Beverage requirements and budget, Audio Visual needs, complimentary needs, etc.
(2) Send the RFP to numerous hotels in area that might be able to meet your needs. Let the hotels know that you have done this. (Competition is good for you)
(3) Ask for either discounts to F&B list price if event is in same calendar year, or lowest of a discounted price in this versus subsequent years.
(4) Let the hotels know that you are on a relatively tight budget, and can only pay "x" for your F&B requirements. NEGOTIATE whenever possible!
(5) Ask if F&B department would be willing to work with you to have menus that both fit your needs, as well as your financial requirements.
(6) Ask for some accomodation re Audio Visual.
(7) Ask for waiving of Meeting Room rental charges if you either have a certain number of guest rooms or F&B revenue.
(8) NEVER lie to the hotel. In today's world, they know what you've done in the past, and how your group was to work with.
(9) Book as far in advance as possible
(10) Be flexible on dates, if possible
(11) Remember to structure all deals/ agreements as a "win-win" situation for both you and the hotel
(12) Let the hotel know of anything complimentary you might require
(13) Let hotel know your priorities
(14) Get everything in writing, and make the RFP an addendum to your hotel contract.
(15) Get give-back dates, where you can return a certain percentage of rooms without penalty (aka attrition)
(16) Don't be greedy, but be firm in what you need, and don't give back important needs
(17) Have an "expert" either within your organization or outside your group oversee all arrangements from the onset.
(18) REMEMBER that once you sign the contract, there is NO reason for hotel to offer anything additional.
(19) Depending on your group size and revenue, certain concessions available might include: % giveback to master bill; welcome drinks; welcome party; complimentary internet; complimentary meal(s); reduced or complimentary health club/spa; complimentary guest rooms, etc.
(20) THINK AHEAD- Consider any and all possibilities and the ramifications!
This is just the beginning of good negotiations. Doing this properly, and proper and thorough follow-up, in advance, will make life much easier once the event occurs.
FOLLOW ME ON TWITTER: @rgbrody (www.twitter.com/rgbrody)
CONSULTING WEBSITE: http://tinyurl.com/rgbcons
(1) Always use a comprehensive Request for Proposal (RFP). This RFP should include ALL anticipated needs of the group, including approximate number of guest rooms, meeting room utilization, Food & Beverage requirements and budget, Audio Visual needs, complimentary needs, etc.
(2) Send the RFP to numerous hotels in area that might be able to meet your needs. Let the hotels know that you have done this. (Competition is good for you)
(3) Ask for either discounts to F&B list price if event is in same calendar year, or lowest of a discounted price in this versus subsequent years.
(4) Let the hotels know that you are on a relatively tight budget, and can only pay "x" for your F&B requirements. NEGOTIATE whenever possible!
(5) Ask if F&B department would be willing to work with you to have menus that both fit your needs, as well as your financial requirements.
(6) Ask for some accomodation re Audio Visual.
(7) Ask for waiving of Meeting Room rental charges if you either have a certain number of guest rooms or F&B revenue.
(8) NEVER lie to the hotel. In today's world, they know what you've done in the past, and how your group was to work with.
(9) Book as far in advance as possible
(10) Be flexible on dates, if possible
(11) Remember to structure all deals/ agreements as a "win-win" situation for both you and the hotel
(12) Let the hotel know of anything complimentary you might require
(13) Let hotel know your priorities
(14) Get everything in writing, and make the RFP an addendum to your hotel contract.
(15) Get give-back dates, where you can return a certain percentage of rooms without penalty (aka attrition)
(16) Don't be greedy, but be firm in what you need, and don't give back important needs
(17) Have an "expert" either within your organization or outside your group oversee all arrangements from the onset.
(18) REMEMBER that once you sign the contract, there is NO reason for hotel to offer anything additional.
(19) Depending on your group size and revenue, certain concessions available might include: % giveback to master bill; welcome drinks; welcome party; complimentary internet; complimentary meal(s); reduced or complimentary health club/spa; complimentary guest rooms, etc.
(20) THINK AHEAD- Consider any and all possibilities and the ramifications!
This is just the beginning of good negotiations. Doing this properly, and proper and thorough follow-up, in advance, will make life much easier once the event occurs.
FOLLOW ME ON TWITTER: @rgbrody (www.twitter.com/rgbrody)
CONSULTING WEBSITE: http://tinyurl.com/rgbcons
Tuesday, November 17, 2009
Why is economic news is so confusing to understand?
No wonder most people don't understand the economy. Often what might seem good on one hand, has bad side effects on the other. For example, the stock market rises- one would think that was good! But that was mostly due to the rising price of oil- bad news. But the price of oil is rising because the "experts" believe the economy is improving and thus more oil will be needed in production- good news! But that rise in oil prices causes the cost of living to increase- bad news. But that helps the Gross Domestic Product (GDP)- good news! But that then causes inflation- bad news. But that inflation means the economy is improving- good news! But then the Fed becomes concerned about inflation and raises interest rates- bad news! Which causes the value of the dollar to improve- good news! But that hurts exports because now American products cost more overseas- bad news! But that means foreign products cost less in the US- good news! But that hurts American companies competetiveness- bad news!
And so on, etc. So you see why economic news often seems co confusing. Because it is- what is good for one consumer, might be bad for another- what is good for one company, bad for another- what might be good for one sector of economy- bad for others.
The stock market is often the most confusing. On days when there is "bad news," the market often goes up, while on some "good news" days, the market sometimes goes down! While the Dow, or the S&P, etc., might go up, it does NOT mean that the stock(s) you own, will follow suit.
Too often, for the sake of a sound-byte, the media tries to over-simplify economic news. Yet the economy is by definition quite complex.
The one issue there should be some agreement on is that high unemployment is not good. Yet even in that case, the "experts" can't agree upon, nor act upon a viable solution.
The best way to think about the economy is this-- the difference between a recession and a depression is that it's a recession when it happens to someone else-- it's a depression when it happens to you!
It is my belief that a healthy economy requires certain factors to be in place - - low joblessness; high consumer confidence; a strong manufacturing sector; and reduced government deficits. That is what we must demand!
Follow me on TWITTER at rgbrody (www.twitter.com/rgbrody)
My Consulting website: http://tinuyurl.com/rgbcons
My Real Estate website: www.portwashingtonlongislandhouses.com
And so on, etc. So you see why economic news often seems co confusing. Because it is- what is good for one consumer, might be bad for another- what is good for one company, bad for another- what might be good for one sector of economy- bad for others.
The stock market is often the most confusing. On days when there is "bad news," the market often goes up, while on some "good news" days, the market sometimes goes down! While the Dow, or the S&P, etc., might go up, it does NOT mean that the stock(s) you own, will follow suit.
Too often, for the sake of a sound-byte, the media tries to over-simplify economic news. Yet the economy is by definition quite complex.
The one issue there should be some agreement on is that high unemployment is not good. Yet even in that case, the "experts" can't agree upon, nor act upon a viable solution.
The best way to think about the economy is this-- the difference between a recession and a depression is that it's a recession when it happens to someone else-- it's a depression when it happens to you!
It is my belief that a healthy economy requires certain factors to be in place - - low joblessness; high consumer confidence; a strong manufacturing sector; and reduced government deficits. That is what we must demand!
Follow me on TWITTER at rgbrody (www.twitter.com/rgbrody)
My Consulting website: http://tinuyurl.com/rgbcons
My Real Estate website: www.portwashingtonlongislandhouses.com
Thursday, November 12, 2009
How much is real, and how much perception?
It seems that every day there is another economic report out that different individuals interpret differently. Today, the joblessness report showed that "only" 502,000 new unemployment claims were made, which was 10,000 less than the previous month and 8,000 less than anticipated. The "gurus" jumped all over this report, letting us know that this was economic news. Although it probably was good news because things were getting significantly worse, it certainly wasn't good news for the 502,000 individuals putting in new unemployment claims. And this was on top of the over 10% already receiving regular and extended unemployment benefits, not to mention those who have taken lesser work or given up looking (estimates are a total of approximately 17.5%).
Also, in today's news, WalMart announced its 3Q economkic figures, and the net revenue was better than anticipated. That could be interpreted as good news, or not so good if one factors in that the increased net was based on lower than anticipated revenues, which means that obviously WalMart had made some "efficiencies" to improve its numbers.
Over 80% of the companies reporting 3Q figures have reported better than anticipated numbers. Does that mean that we are gradually coming out of the recession (hopefully), or that companies are cutting jobs making themselves more profitable, or that the "experts" are under-estimating, or some combination of the three? It all depends on PERCEPTION.
Most experts believe that the worst of the recession has passed, and that there will be gradual, but slow improvement during 2010. Historically, companies begin recovery periods by hiring part-time workers before they add full-time employees. However, since the average number of hours the American worker has dropped to only 33 hours per week, will companies then simply have existing workers put in a little more time. I believe that this figure of number of average hours per week will be a significant one to look at when we want to see how much progress is being made in getting out of the recession.
The housing market is an important one to follow as an indicator of the economy. Government incentives have slightly shored up the housing market, but it will not bounce back until there is some restoration of consumer confidence. For anyone who is in a position to buy a house, there has rarely been this great a buying situation, when you consider the combination of relatively low prices, low mortgage rates (average 30 year mortgage rates dropped today to 4.91%), tax incentives, and selection on market. Yet, many potential buyers are still adopting a "wait-and-see" approach, and just taking their time. Most experts believe that home prices, and mortgage interest rates will nudge up toward the second half of 2010. Again, consumer confidence and perception is a primary factor in this evaluation.
So, what is really going on? Huge US deficits, a weak US dollar, a recession, high joblessness and under-employment, are all unfortunate realities. Corporations have reacted by making themselves more cost-efficient, but unfortunately that exacerbates the unemployment challenge. The economy does not appear to be getting any worse! The next important step is to see how consumer confidence reacts. Halloween shopping was nearly 30% down this year, and if Christmas shopping bounces back somewhat, that will be an important indicator that consumer confidence is increasing. Many major retailers have already announced that they will beging "Black Friday" sales early, and be more aggressive in their marketing this season. Hopefully, some of the seasonal employment will be extended and we see a restoration in the job area as early as the second quarter of 2010. Vacation travel during the holidays, and overall travel in January and February of next year, will also be important indicators of consumer confidence.
Since most experts believe that one of the driving forces in creating this recession is the high cost of energy, job creation should be created by having the government create alternative energy incentives, and for hiring and re-training into that industry. T.Boone Pickens has promoted heavily his Pickens Plan, with the goal of US energy independence, by using alternative energy (he prefers windmills), and natural gas (because of its abundance in the US). Creating jobs in this area would be a short-term and a long-term solution, because it addresses not only employment, but a stronger US energy policy.
The American electorate must demand from it's politicians that they become leaders. Leadership and statesmanship means that "polls" should not dictate policy, but that they need to be effective problem solvers. It can be done, and must be done, for the U.S. to again become the strongest economy in the world. I truly believe that if the American public clearly demands "real change," instead of empty promises, we can "jump-start" our economy, and consumer confidence. I urge you all to join with me.
Follow me on Twitter: @rgbrody (www.twitter.com/rgbrody)
My consulting website: http://tinyurl.com/rgbcons
My real-estate website: http://tinyurl.com/rgb242
Also, in today's news, WalMart announced its 3Q economkic figures, and the net revenue was better than anticipated. That could be interpreted as good news, or not so good if one factors in that the increased net was based on lower than anticipated revenues, which means that obviously WalMart had made some "efficiencies" to improve its numbers.
Over 80% of the companies reporting 3Q figures have reported better than anticipated numbers. Does that mean that we are gradually coming out of the recession (hopefully), or that companies are cutting jobs making themselves more profitable, or that the "experts" are under-estimating, or some combination of the three? It all depends on PERCEPTION.
Most experts believe that the worst of the recession has passed, and that there will be gradual, but slow improvement during 2010. Historically, companies begin recovery periods by hiring part-time workers before they add full-time employees. However, since the average number of hours the American worker has dropped to only 33 hours per week, will companies then simply have existing workers put in a little more time. I believe that this figure of number of average hours per week will be a significant one to look at when we want to see how much progress is being made in getting out of the recession.
The housing market is an important one to follow as an indicator of the economy. Government incentives have slightly shored up the housing market, but it will not bounce back until there is some restoration of consumer confidence. For anyone who is in a position to buy a house, there has rarely been this great a buying situation, when you consider the combination of relatively low prices, low mortgage rates (average 30 year mortgage rates dropped today to 4.91%), tax incentives, and selection on market. Yet, many potential buyers are still adopting a "wait-and-see" approach, and just taking their time. Most experts believe that home prices, and mortgage interest rates will nudge up toward the second half of 2010. Again, consumer confidence and perception is a primary factor in this evaluation.
So, what is really going on? Huge US deficits, a weak US dollar, a recession, high joblessness and under-employment, are all unfortunate realities. Corporations have reacted by making themselves more cost-efficient, but unfortunately that exacerbates the unemployment challenge. The economy does not appear to be getting any worse! The next important step is to see how consumer confidence reacts. Halloween shopping was nearly 30% down this year, and if Christmas shopping bounces back somewhat, that will be an important indicator that consumer confidence is increasing. Many major retailers have already announced that they will beging "Black Friday" sales early, and be more aggressive in their marketing this season. Hopefully, some of the seasonal employment will be extended and we see a restoration in the job area as early as the second quarter of 2010. Vacation travel during the holidays, and overall travel in January and February of next year, will also be important indicators of consumer confidence.
Since most experts believe that one of the driving forces in creating this recession is the high cost of energy, job creation should be created by having the government create alternative energy incentives, and for hiring and re-training into that industry. T.Boone Pickens has promoted heavily his Pickens Plan, with the goal of US energy independence, by using alternative energy (he prefers windmills), and natural gas (because of its abundance in the US). Creating jobs in this area would be a short-term and a long-term solution, because it addresses not only employment, but a stronger US energy policy.
The American electorate must demand from it's politicians that they become leaders. Leadership and statesmanship means that "polls" should not dictate policy, but that they need to be effective problem solvers. It can be done, and must be done, for the U.S. to again become the strongest economy in the world. I truly believe that if the American public clearly demands "real change," instead of empty promises, we can "jump-start" our economy, and consumer confidence. I urge you all to join with me.
Follow me on Twitter: @rgbrody (www.twitter.com/rgbrody)
My consulting website: http://tinyurl.com/rgbcons
My real-estate website: http://tinyurl.com/rgb242
Tuesday, November 10, 2009
The Long Island School Tax Dilemna
Since school taxes account for 60% or more of the real estate taxes in Long Island, and that ever-growing burden has been widely recognized, it is deeply disconcerting when Newsday this morning ran an article about how there was a wide disparity between the projected school tax for this year (projected when budgets were voted on) and the actual tax rate recently implemented. School districts like Roslyn, which projected tax increases below 2% are now actually imposing taxes greater than 4.5%. Across Long Island, the actual tax being imposed is substantially greater than the projections.
Several reasons have been cited, including: commercial tax assessment reduction resulting in a lower than anticipated tax collection; previous residential tax assessment appeals that lowered tax collections, etc. Whether that is the complete reason, or it is also a matter of "political spin," where school budget proponents use a favorable estimate when they are campaigning for the budget; or the overall economic crisis; or lower than anticipated grants received - - it turns out that homeowners end up paying for the miscalculation.
That being said, the real issues are the way our schools are paid for; the efficiencies or lack of efficiencies built into the present system; state and federal unfunded mandates. And though, lots of people complain about the costs, the debate always becomes a polarizing one between parents who say, "The children deserve the best," and stressed-out homeowners, who say, "It costs too much . . . cut . . . cut!" Yet neither side kis fully
examining all options. I truly believe it is NOT a matter of how much it costs to run schools, but how the money is spent! What efficiencies are schools not using that could save substantial monies while not having any adverse educational effect. Because it has never been demonstrated that educational quality is simply a matter of how much money is spent! For example, in New York City, there has been some evidence that the use of privately run Charter Schools create better educations, often at lower costs. Here on Long Island, for example, schools use varying class period lengths, ranging from 40 minutes to one hour. Most educational studies have indicated that the shorter periods create more effective learning because of attention spans. In addition, because of the way many teacher contracts are structured, the one-hour length creates an inability to get as many classroom hours per teacher, thus requiring hiring more teachers. Some high schools on Long Island use the One Principal/ One Asst Principal plus deans model, while others use the Principal, Asst Principal for every grade model, which obviously is a costlier model. Yet each model has its proponents.
On Long Island, different school districts range in size, yet each hires a Superintendent and staff, so therefore the larger districts enjoy economies of scale, and thus lower costs per students.
Similarly, there are potential savings if districts would use more centralized purchasing. In Nassau County, some school districts utilize BOCES to create better economies, but there are many more savings. For example, joint negotiating for buses, etc., would create savings for most districts.
Homeowners must demand accountability, or they give up their "right to complain." The methodology of voting for school budgets, where defeating a budget creates an automatic contingency budget, which saves little money but mandates how the money is spent, often creates an even worse alternative. We deserve better, and must demand a better, more streamlined, more effective and efficient system, which better educates and prepares our children.
Enough of being told, "We do it this way because that's how we've always done it." It's time to think outside the box!
Several reasons have been cited, including: commercial tax assessment reduction resulting in a lower than anticipated tax collection; previous residential tax assessment appeals that lowered tax collections, etc. Whether that is the complete reason, or it is also a matter of "political spin," where school budget proponents use a favorable estimate when they are campaigning for the budget; or the overall economic crisis; or lower than anticipated grants received - - it turns out that homeowners end up paying for the miscalculation.
That being said, the real issues are the way our schools are paid for; the efficiencies or lack of efficiencies built into the present system; state and federal unfunded mandates. And though, lots of people complain about the costs, the debate always becomes a polarizing one between parents who say, "The children deserve the best," and stressed-out homeowners, who say, "It costs too much . . . cut . . . cut!" Yet neither side kis fully
examining all options. I truly believe it is NOT a matter of how much it costs to run schools, but how the money is spent! What efficiencies are schools not using that could save substantial monies while not having any adverse educational effect. Because it has never been demonstrated that educational quality is simply a matter of how much money is spent! For example, in New York City, there has been some evidence that the use of privately run Charter Schools create better educations, often at lower costs. Here on Long Island, for example, schools use varying class period lengths, ranging from 40 minutes to one hour. Most educational studies have indicated that the shorter periods create more effective learning because of attention spans. In addition, because of the way many teacher contracts are structured, the one-hour length creates an inability to get as many classroom hours per teacher, thus requiring hiring more teachers. Some high schools on Long Island use the One Principal/ One Asst Principal plus deans model, while others use the Principal, Asst Principal for every grade model, which obviously is a costlier model. Yet each model has its proponents.
On Long Island, different school districts range in size, yet each hires a Superintendent and staff, so therefore the larger districts enjoy economies of scale, and thus lower costs per students.
Similarly, there are potential savings if districts would use more centralized purchasing. In Nassau County, some school districts utilize BOCES to create better economies, but there are many more savings. For example, joint negotiating for buses, etc., would create savings for most districts.
Homeowners must demand accountability, or they give up their "right to complain." The methodology of voting for school budgets, where defeating a budget creates an automatic contingency budget, which saves little money but mandates how the money is spent, often creates an even worse alternative. We deserve better, and must demand a better, more streamlined, more effective and efficient system, which better educates and prepares our children.
Enough of being told, "We do it this way because that's how we've always done it." It's time to think outside the box!
Monday, November 9, 2009
HEALTH PLAN- Where we are really at?
Many have reported that the first step on achieving meaningful health care reform has been achieved when the US House of Representatives passed a nearly 2,000 page bill by the vote of 220- 215. It should be noted that only one Republican voted with the majority, and several more conservative Democrats voted against the bill. In order to get this bill to pass, the majority approved of very strong language prohibiting any funds to be used for abortions. The next step is for the Senate to vote on a health bill, and since the version in the Senate is considerably different from the bill in the House, if the Senate passes a bill, it would then go to a Senate-House Joint Committee gto "hammer out" a compromise bill. That bill would then have to be voted on by both the House and the Senate, and if approved, would then go President Obama to sign into law. It is very important to realize that this is a long process.
Even the Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid has said that he has doubts that the legislation can even be voted on in the Senate this calendar year. The Senate filibuster rules also makes it that you need 60 of the 100 Senators to even bring a bill to a vote, and, at least publically, the Senate Republicans have almost nearly stated objections. In committee, the only Republican to vote with the majority was Senator Olympia Snow of Maine, and even she has said that she will not support a bill that includes the so-called "public option." Republicans have stated that this bill should emphasize reducing health care costs, and that the US economy cannot afford anything that will further increase the deficit. Because of all the various provisions of this legislation, neither supporters nor opponents are 100% clear on all the provisions. The only thing certain is that both sides will "spin" the issue!
Because of all the public discussion on the issue, my belief is that some "watered-down" version of a bill will eventually pass, and that both sides will claim victory, and how they have served and protected the American public.
What is truly uncertain is exactly who will really benefit from this legislation, exactly how much will this really cost, will health care be improved in this country, who and what will suffer, and what are all the long-term and short-term ramifications of either action or inaction on this issue. While everyone would tell you that they believe that everyone should receive quality medical coverage, does this, in the long-term address that? How would the costs of medical malpractice insurance, unnecessary medical tests, etc., be impacted by this legislation? What works and what does not work in other countries that have Universal coverage?
Doesn't it seem that the public should be truly informed about such important legislation? It may be an excellent paln - - it may be horrendous; but we have certainly not been informed of how the 85% of Americans who presently have medical coverage will be affected (will their insurance benefits improve; will it cost less; will there still be an incentive for doctors to practice; will drug approval be impacted; will alternative medicine be considered; will there be more provision for enhanced preventative medicine; etc?). How much will the plan really cost, and what protections are built in for the American taxpayer? How will this plan save the consumer money? If there are taxes that will be imposed to pay for this plan, what will be the potential negative impact on the overall economy, and on employer-provided health care? What will be the impact on other medical treatments such as: dentistry; optometry; chiropractry; alternative/ holistic practioners?
While I certainly don't know the complete answer, I believe we should ALL be asking some important questions!
FOLLOW ME ON TWITTER: @rgbrody (www.twitter.com/rgbrody)
Consulting Website: http://tinyurl.com/rgbcons
Even the Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid has said that he has doubts that the legislation can even be voted on in the Senate this calendar year. The Senate filibuster rules also makes it that you need 60 of the 100 Senators to even bring a bill to a vote, and, at least publically, the Senate Republicans have almost nearly stated objections. In committee, the only Republican to vote with the majority was Senator Olympia Snow of Maine, and even she has said that she will not support a bill that includes the so-called "public option." Republicans have stated that this bill should emphasize reducing health care costs, and that the US economy cannot afford anything that will further increase the deficit. Because of all the various provisions of this legislation, neither supporters nor opponents are 100% clear on all the provisions. The only thing certain is that both sides will "spin" the issue!
Because of all the public discussion on the issue, my belief is that some "watered-down" version of a bill will eventually pass, and that both sides will claim victory, and how they have served and protected the American public.
What is truly uncertain is exactly who will really benefit from this legislation, exactly how much will this really cost, will health care be improved in this country, who and what will suffer, and what are all the long-term and short-term ramifications of either action or inaction on this issue. While everyone would tell you that they believe that everyone should receive quality medical coverage, does this, in the long-term address that? How would the costs of medical malpractice insurance, unnecessary medical tests, etc., be impacted by this legislation? What works and what does not work in other countries that have Universal coverage?
Doesn't it seem that the public should be truly informed about such important legislation? It may be an excellent paln - - it may be horrendous; but we have certainly not been informed of how the 85% of Americans who presently have medical coverage will be affected (will their insurance benefits improve; will it cost less; will there still be an incentive for doctors to practice; will drug approval be impacted; will alternative medicine be considered; will there be more provision for enhanced preventative medicine; etc?). How much will the plan really cost, and what protections are built in for the American taxpayer? How will this plan save the consumer money? If there are taxes that will be imposed to pay for this plan, what will be the potential negative impact on the overall economy, and on employer-provided health care? What will be the impact on other medical treatments such as: dentistry; optometry; chiropractry; alternative/ holistic practioners?
While I certainly don't know the complete answer, I believe we should ALL be asking some important questions!
FOLLOW ME ON TWITTER: @rgbrody (www.twitter.com/rgbrody)
Consulting Website: http://tinyurl.com/rgbcons
Friday, November 6, 2009
SORTING THROUGH THE ECONOMIC NEWS
Last night, news media were reporting that they anticipated the jobless rate to rise slightly to 9.9%. At around the same time, it was announced that President Obama would today sign into law a bill that would: (1) extend unemployment benefit eligibility by up to an additional 20 weeks (meaning to a maximum of 99 weeks, if eligible- the maximum is for those 26 states where unemployment exceeds 8.5%); (2)extend and enhance the New Homebuyers Credit from November 30th until June 30th (This bill requires going into contract by April 30th and closing by June 30th). This bill will now NOT only provide first time buyers a tax credit of up to $8,000, but would extend to homeowners who've lived in their present home at least five of the last eight years (at a credit of up to $6,500); and (3) a modification of the law for businesses that have had losses to offset gains for more years back than the present law permits, thus hopefully freeing up cash flow for corporations.
Early this morning, the official joblessness rate was announced as a higher than anticipated 10.2%, the highest unemployment rate in 26 years. What is even more disconcerting is that this figure does not account for those no longer seeking employment, or working part-time, or in much lower positions. In addition, the average US worker's work-week is now averaging approximately 33 hours per week, one of the lowest averages in many years. One would therefore expect that the stock market would have a "correction" from yesterday's increase, and stock market indexes did indeed open sharply lower this morning.
What this means is that our political leaders need to seriously and immediately address the most urgent economic condition facing this nation today - - - unemployment and under- employment! While I believe the bill being signed today is both necessary and helpful, we now need to apply pressure on elected officials to use some "common sense solutions" to address both employment and other economic issues. Unfortunately, it is uncommon for political leaders to use "common sense." (Is a political leader using common sense an oxymoron?)
When I consult to a business, organization, or individual, I explore alternatives and explain all possible ramifications of actions or inactions. Isn't it about time our politicians did the same thing?
MY CONSULTING WEBSITE: http://tinyurl.com/rgbcons
MY REAL ESTATE WEBSITE: www.portwashingtonlongislandhouses.com
FOLLOW ME ON TWITTER: @rgbrody (www.twitter.com/rgbrody)
THIS BLOG: http://tinyurl.com/rgbstake
MY R.E. BLOG: http://tinyurl.com/rgbreb
Early this morning, the official joblessness rate was announced as a higher than anticipated 10.2%, the highest unemployment rate in 26 years. What is even more disconcerting is that this figure does not account for those no longer seeking employment, or working part-time, or in much lower positions. In addition, the average US worker's work-week is now averaging approximately 33 hours per week, one of the lowest averages in many years. One would therefore expect that the stock market would have a "correction" from yesterday's increase, and stock market indexes did indeed open sharply lower this morning.
What this means is that our political leaders need to seriously and immediately address the most urgent economic condition facing this nation today - - - unemployment and under- employment! While I believe the bill being signed today is both necessary and helpful, we now need to apply pressure on elected officials to use some "common sense solutions" to address both employment and other economic issues. Unfortunately, it is uncommon for political leaders to use "common sense." (Is a political leader using common sense an oxymoron?)
When I consult to a business, organization, or individual, I explore alternatives and explain all possible ramifications of actions or inactions. Isn't it about time our politicians did the same thing?
MY CONSULTING WEBSITE: http://tinyurl.com/rgbcons
MY REAL ESTATE WEBSITE: www.portwashingtonlongislandhouses.com
FOLLOW ME ON TWITTER: @rgbrody (www.twitter.com/rgbrody)
THIS BLOG: http://tinyurl.com/rgbstake
MY R.E. BLOG: http://tinyurl.com/rgbreb
Thursday, November 5, 2009
Interesting News in Housing Market
Today, FNMA appeared to be prepared to alter its established policy regarding foreclosures on properties they control. It appears that they have made the decision to rent out these distressed properties instead of foreclosing and selling them. If this policy is maintained, it would go a long way toward stabilizing housing because it would somewhat reduce the "supply side" of homes by removing these distressed properties from the marketplace. The net effect of that should eventually be shoring up home prices, as well as reducing the amount of average days on market for houses listed for sale. It would also reduce "bottom-feeding" tendencies, and create a more realistically priced housing market.
In addition, the Fed's decision this week to maintain low interest rates for the foreseeable future, should help keep mortgage interest rates close to the low levels they currently are at. In addition, news about the Fed and certain large public companies working together to share the risk on distressed properties/ loans, should eventually loosen the mortgage lending market to some degree.
The recent election results have also indicated that people have become "fed up" with the high taxes they are paying. If this then translates into finally addressing the high real estate taxes paid in certain areas of the country, this will also help the housing market.
There also seems to finally be some awareness that we must control our energy costs, and if that rhetoric translates into some action, it would be another positive for the housing market and real estate industry.
Finally, if our politicians now get the message that the joblessness issue has to be addressed, and Americans begin to see some job creation and consumer confidence, then there will be a rebound in the housing market.
The consensus is that the housing market has or nearly has bottomed out. Therefore, 2010 should be a much better year.
FOLLOW ME ON TWITTER: @rgbrody
Go to My Real Estate Website: www.portwashingtonlongislandhouses.com
My consulting website is: http://tinyurl.com/rgbcons
My dedicated Real estate Blog: www.portwashingtonlongislandhouses.activerain.com
ANY QUESTIONS: E-mail: rgrosy@portwashingtonlongislandhouses.com
In addition, the Fed's decision this week to maintain low interest rates for the foreseeable future, should help keep mortgage interest rates close to the low levels they currently are at. In addition, news about the Fed and certain large public companies working together to share the risk on distressed properties/ loans, should eventually loosen the mortgage lending market to some degree.
The recent election results have also indicated that people have become "fed up" with the high taxes they are paying. If this then translates into finally addressing the high real estate taxes paid in certain areas of the country, this will also help the housing market.
There also seems to finally be some awareness that we must control our energy costs, and if that rhetoric translates into some action, it would be another positive for the housing market and real estate industry.
Finally, if our politicians now get the message that the joblessness issue has to be addressed, and Americans begin to see some job creation and consumer confidence, then there will be a rebound in the housing market.
The consensus is that the housing market has or nearly has bottomed out. Therefore, 2010 should be a much better year.
FOLLOW ME ON TWITTER: @rgbrody
Go to My Real Estate Website: www.portwashingtonlongislandhouses.com
My consulting website is: http://tinyurl.com/rgbcons
My dedicated Real estate Blog: www.portwashingtonlongislandhouses.activerain.com
ANY QUESTIONS: E-mail: rgrosy@portwashingtonlongislandhouses.com
Wednesday, November 4, 2009
Economic & Political Developments, & THE "SPIN"
Election Day was a busy day in the US yesterday. Oh, not particularly at the polls, where light to lighter-than-usual turnouts of voters at the polls yesterday. It was a "spinner's holiday" because any Democrat defeat or Republican victory would be "spun" into a statement on the President. Corzine's loss in New Jersey was more because of the unpopularity of the Governor and his policies, as well as voter anger about taxes, than any type of national indicator regarding the President (in fact, in NJ, exit polls indicated that over 55% stated that their vote had nothing to do with Obama). Similarly, nobody should have been terribly surprised with the Virginia gubernatorial result. But, President Obama brought this "spin" upon himself by campaigning so often in Virginia, and especially in New Jersey. Nationally, ansd especially in the New York metropolitan area, it was a bad Election Day for incumbents, who an angry and anxious electorate took their despair and unrest out on. It reminded me of the line from the movie, NETWORK,"I'm mad as hell and NOT going to take it an ymore!"
The US House of Representatives indicated that it will probably vote this week on both an extension and enhancement of the popular New Homebuyers Tax Credit. The goal stated is to get the bill to the President by next week, far ahead of the November 30th deadline. Critics claim that there really has not been that much of an economic advantage, because those that bought houses would have done so anyway. That is probably somewhat true; however, what is not stated is when, and the economic urgency of making the housing market healthy sooner rather than later.
The "spinners" are also having a field-day over the reported jobless numbers. "Only" about 203,000 more jobs were lost last month, so since this is NOT worse than expectations, the stock market appears to be celebrating, at least on a short-term basis. That is until the next report, and someone "spins" the numbers another way.
The hot news this morning is the report that NY Attorney General Andrew Cuomo is going after Intel for anti-trust violations, similar to the recently settled suit in Europe. Are we supposed to be surprised that Intel applied pressure and coercion on PC manufacturers to use their chip, instead of their competitiors. However, since Intel already dominates the chip industry with approximately 80% of the market, how much coercion was really necessary? Anyway, it gives the politicos and the press something to divert their attention, now that the elections are over.
Our political leaders still seem to be hiding from the real central economic issue-- joblessness. Until the American public regains their confidence that jobs will actually be restored as opposed to lost, and that there will be both job creation as well as job security, our economy will have an uphill battle to recovery. We need to open our eyes, and ask why. We need to question the status quo. We need to have the politicians know that the time for rhetoric is over - - it is now time for real action. Change is just a word unless it becomes an action!
FOLLOW ME ON TWITTER: @rgbrody
The US House of Representatives indicated that it will probably vote this week on both an extension and enhancement of the popular New Homebuyers Tax Credit. The goal stated is to get the bill to the President by next week, far ahead of the November 30th deadline. Critics claim that there really has not been that much of an economic advantage, because those that bought houses would have done so anyway. That is probably somewhat true; however, what is not stated is when, and the economic urgency of making the housing market healthy sooner rather than later.
The "spinners" are also having a field-day over the reported jobless numbers. "Only" about 203,000 more jobs were lost last month, so since this is NOT worse than expectations, the stock market appears to be celebrating, at least on a short-term basis. That is until the next report, and someone "spins" the numbers another way.
The hot news this morning is the report that NY Attorney General Andrew Cuomo is going after Intel for anti-trust violations, similar to the recently settled suit in Europe. Are we supposed to be surprised that Intel applied pressure and coercion on PC manufacturers to use their chip, instead of their competitiors. However, since Intel already dominates the chip industry with approximately 80% of the market, how much coercion was really necessary? Anyway, it gives the politicos and the press something to divert their attention, now that the elections are over.
Our political leaders still seem to be hiding from the real central economic issue-- joblessness. Until the American public regains their confidence that jobs will actually be restored as opposed to lost, and that there will be both job creation as well as job security, our economy will have an uphill battle to recovery. We need to open our eyes, and ask why. We need to question the status quo. We need to have the politicians know that the time for rhetoric is over - - it is now time for real action. Change is just a word unless it becomes an action!
FOLLOW ME ON TWITTER: @rgbrody
Tuesday, November 3, 2009
STAY INSISTENT RE HOME CREDIT
Ever since Senator Reid's office announced that the Senate would be extending and enhancing the 1st Time Homebuyers Credit, there has been much less "buzz" around stating the urgency of doing that. My fear is that we are being lulled into apathy and the "it's going to happen" mode, while politicians play typical political games. The present credit is scheduled to expire November 30th, and we are already entering into the traditional slow season for real estate (just what we need on top of the present real estate reality). The market and the economy needs further jump starting, and this credit is one of the few government stimuli out there that goes directly to the American consumer. Remember that a healthy real estate market not only helps realtors, buyers and sellers, buit also helps mortgage brokers and banks, building trades including laborers and suppliers, builders, rtc. This credit is an example of the "trickle up" theory at it's best!
Realtors, bankers, homeowners, homebuyers, consumers, building trades, etc. must contact their representatives and senators, and let then know, that we want and need action NOW! Every day without this extention in place hurts the marketplace.
This extension should be a "no-brainer." Unfortunately, many politicians are just that - - politicians who are constantly running, instead of statesman who are governing. Tell your politicians that we want and need statesman NOW, and we will demonstrate that at the polls. This is NOT a Republican, Democrat, Conservative or Liberal issue - - this is an issue of helping to repair and mend our economy. Tell them all to do it NOW!
Follow me on Twitter: @rgbrody
My Real Estate Blog: www.portwashingtonlongislandhouses.activerain.com
My RGB's TAKE Blog: http://tinyurl.com/rgbstake
My Real Estate Website: www.portwashingtonlongislandhouses.com
My Consulting Website: http://tinyurl.com/rgbcons
Realtors, bankers, homeowners, homebuyers, consumers, building trades, etc. must contact their representatives and senators, and let then know, that we want and need action NOW! Every day without this extention in place hurts the marketplace.
This extension should be a "no-brainer." Unfortunately, many politicians are just that - - politicians who are constantly running, instead of statesman who are governing. Tell your politicians that we want and need statesman NOW, and we will demonstrate that at the polls. This is NOT a Republican, Democrat, Conservative or Liberal issue - - this is an issue of helping to repair and mend our economy. Tell them all to do it NOW!
Follow me on Twitter: @rgbrody
My Real Estate Blog: www.portwashingtonlongislandhouses.activerain.com
My RGB's TAKE Blog: http://tinyurl.com/rgbstake
My Real Estate Website: www.portwashingtonlongislandhouses.com
My Consulting Website: http://tinyurl.com/rgbcons
Monday, November 2, 2009
Is Social Media Really Social?
Everyone talks about how important the use of Social Media is today. Depending on how comprehensive a definition you wish to use, social media can include sites like Facebook, Flikr, LinkedIn, TwitterActive Rain, MySpace,YouTube, etc., as well as Blogs, e-mail, personal or business websites, etc. But are these sites really social?
Granted you contact many other people. But far too often these sites are used so that an individual can somewhat anonymously "speak" to others, without having to make eye contact.
While I completely believe in using these media and do, I still believe the "old-fashioned" method of "face-to-face" contact, or picking up a phone are still more effective. Social media is best used to drive a reader's attention to a more detailed blog or website, and that those formats drive business or contacts to the writer or creator of the site/ blog. However, the use and effectiveness of a Blog or a website is ONLY as effective as how well that vehicle stirs interest or excitement in the reader. Blogs and websites must meet a reader's expectations, or they will only be looked at once!
Think about how often you send an e-mail and don't get a response. Or the response doesn't answer the question, or elicits another question. Think of the amount of time and energy that have been wasted, when simply picking up the phone might have quickly resolved the issue.
E-mail and social media are best used either as an introduction, or a follow-up to other forms of contact, or when the other more personal forms are impossible to achieve.
I fear that far too many are becoming too dependent on this non-personal form of communication, and that important messages might be misconstrued. Think about it.
I DO USE SOCIAL MEDIA:
Follow me on Twitter: @rgbrody
I'm on Facebook, LinkedIn, MySpace & Active Rain
My Real estate only blog is: http://tinyurl.com/rgbreb
Check Out my Real Estate Website: www.portwashingtonlongislandhouses.com
Check out my Consulting Website: http://tinyurl.com/rgbcons
Granted you contact many other people. But far too often these sites are used so that an individual can somewhat anonymously "speak" to others, without having to make eye contact.
While I completely believe in using these media and do, I still believe the "old-fashioned" method of "face-to-face" contact, or picking up a phone are still more effective. Social media is best used to drive a reader's attention to a more detailed blog or website, and that those formats drive business or contacts to the writer or creator of the site/ blog. However, the use and effectiveness of a Blog or a website is ONLY as effective as how well that vehicle stirs interest or excitement in the reader. Blogs and websites must meet a reader's expectations, or they will only be looked at once!
Think about how often you send an e-mail and don't get a response. Or the response doesn't answer the question, or elicits another question. Think of the amount of time and energy that have been wasted, when simply picking up the phone might have quickly resolved the issue.
E-mail and social media are best used either as an introduction, or a follow-up to other forms of contact, or when the other more personal forms are impossible to achieve.
I fear that far too many are becoming too dependent on this non-personal form of communication, and that important messages might be misconstrued. Think about it.
I DO USE SOCIAL MEDIA:
Follow me on Twitter: @rgbrody
I'm on Facebook, LinkedIn, MySpace & Active Rain
My Real estate only blog is: http://tinyurl.com/rgbreb
Check Out my Real Estate Website: www.portwashingtonlongislandhouses.com
Check out my Consulting Website: http://tinyurl.com/rgbcons
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