THANKSGIVING THANKS

Thanksgiving 2009 is a sadder year than most for many Americans. With the U.S. and most of the world in a deep recession, with high unemployment, with over 100,000 Americans still in "harms way" in battles in Iraq and Afghanistan, I believe it is more important than ever to step back and give thanks for our many blessings.
We should be grateful for the fact that Americans have more freedoms than almost any other place on the planet. We have the right to protest. We have the right to criticize our government. We have the right to elect our political leaders, and to vote out any politician that we are unhappy with. We have the ability to force politicians to better represent us by being vocal in our support or opposition of any policy.
Only in America, where we have free and democratic elections, do our citizens have the right to vote, and yet, in most elections, less than half of the eligible voters exercise that right. Here in Nassau County, NY, they are still counting the last of the votes in our County Supervisor race, and after over 240,000 votes have been counted, there is only a 160 vote difference. Now, when you consider that less than half the eligible voters actually voted, we can clearly say that whoever wins certainly has no mandate. But, we should be thankful that we have the rights!
Only in America, can I or anyone else, have the right to publish a blog, and as long as nothing illegal, libelous or slanderous is said, not worry about the legal ramifications! Only in America, can a former unknown become "famous" from a TV competition although finishing second, and then perform a controversial act on television that forced ABC to decide to cancel his morning GMA appearance, only to have CBS decide to have him on BOTH their morning, as well as their late night Letterman shows.
Only in America can we dwell on the negatives of the economy, and at the same time have Tiffany announce both revenues and earnings that far exceeded expectations.
Only in America, can we talk about the difficulty this year in keeping food pantries stocked sufficiently to feed the many feeling the pinch from the economy, and at the same time have Black Friday Christmas sales promotions all over the media.
Only in America can we talk about health care, yet have various solutions discussed that only address parts of the problem, while in some cases not considering the ramifications of some of the "solutions."
Only in America can we talk about justice for all, yet the justice that the wealthy, middle class, and poor enjoy is certainly often NOT the same justice!
Yet, with all its faults, we are lucky to be living in America. Here we can complain, we can argue, we can be charitable. Americans are amongst the most charitable people in the world, and in times of distress, have a long history of coming through. On this Thanksgiving holiday, we should all give thanks that we live in the U.S.

HOUSING NEWS UPDATE

The most recent housing report showed that sales for October 2009 were up 10.1% over October 2008. While that is certainly promising news, it must be considered in light of a few factors. The first factor was, of course, that October 2008 numbers were so dismal that even with an increase, there is plenty of room for improvement. Then, we must remember that some closings last month occurred as a result of the First Time Housing Credit, and the uncertainty at that time over whether it would be extended (remember it was originally set to expire at end of November). The continuation of historically low mortgage rates has certainly also helped. In addition, while sales were up, the average price of a house sold last month versus a year before is down, so, in other words, houses are still selling for less than in the past.
The good news are indications are that the worst of the recession is probably past us, consumer confidence seems to have improved slightly, mortgage rates should remain low for the foreseeable future (and hopefully the government will apply pressures on lenders to lend!), home prices are more affordable, the Home buying credit has been BOTH extend and enhanced, and most economists are calling for the U.S. economy to improve somewhat throughout 2010. The less-happy news is the high joblessness rate, the uncertainty in the economy, less than stellar public consumer confidence, and a seemingly prevailing attitude that "there is no rush" to do anything, and the overall wait-and-see attitude.
We have gone from a decade of a "seller's market" in the housing market, to a mixed market, to a buyer's market (where unfortunately NOT enough buyers are taking advantage - - - either being unwilling, afraid, or unable to). The real estate market has always been cyclical, and this market is the same in that way. We are probably at or near the bottom of the market now, and 2010 should probably see the beginning of the recovery. Those in a position to take advantage should do so now, because the combination of tax advantages, low prices and low mortgage rates have brought the true cost of home purchasing down significantly.
The industry and those interested in having a sound and robust housing market should implore their elected officials to address the most pressing economic issues now --- joblessness (and job creation), consumer confidence, responsible economic policies, and continued incentives that benefits consumers instead of just large corporations!

FOLLOW ME ON TWITTER: @rgbrody (www.twitter.com/rgbrody
CHECK OUT MY REAL ESTATE SITE: http://tinyurl.com/pwlire
LEARN WHAT A CONSULTING PRO CAN DO FOR YOU: http://tinyurl.com/rgbcons
FOLLOW MY BLOG UPDATES (updated several times each week):
The most recent housing report showed that sales for October 2009 were up 10.1% over October 2008. While that is certainly promising news, it must be considered in light of a few factors. The first factor was, of course, that October 2008 numbers were so dismal that even with an increase, there is plenty of room for improvement. Then, we must remember that some closings last month occurred as a result of the First Time Housing Credit, and the uncertainty at that time over whether it would be extended (remember it was originally set to expire at end of November). The continuation of historically low mortgage rates has certainly also helped. In addition, while sales were up, the average price of a house sold last month versus a year before is down, so, in other words, houses are still selling for less than in the past.
The good news are indications are that the worst of the recession is probably past us, consumer confidence seems to have improved slightly, mortgage rates should remain low for the foreseeable future (and hopefully the government will apply pressures on lenders to lend!), home prices are more affordable, the Home buying credit has been BOTH extend and enhanced, and most economists are calling for the U.S. economy to improve somewhat throughout 2010. The less-happy news is the high joblessness rate, the uncertainty in the economy, less than stellar public consumer confidence, and a seemingly prevailing attitude that "there is no rush" to do anything, and the overall wait-and-see attitude.
We have gone from a decade of a "seller's market" in the housing market, to a mixed market, to a buyer's market (where unfortunately NOT enough buyers are taking advantage - - - either being unwilling, afraid, or unable to). The real estate market has always been cyclical, and this market is the same in that way. We are probably at or near the bottom of the market now, and 2010 should probably see the beginning of the recovery. Those in a position to take advantage should do so now, because the combination of tax advantages, low prices and low mortgage rates have brought the true cost of home purchasing down significantly.
The industry and those interested in having a sound and robust housing market should implore their elected officials to address the most pressing economic issues now --- joblessness (and job creation), consumer confidence, responsible economic policies, and continued incentives that benefits consumers instead of just large corporations!

FOLLOW ME ON TWITTER: @rgbrody (www.twitter.com/rgbrody
CHECK OUT MY REAL ESTATE SITE: http://tinyurl.com/pwlire
LEARN WHAT A CONSULTING PRO CAN DO FOR YOU: http://tinyurl.com/rgbcons
FOLLOW MY BLOG UPDATES (updated several times each week):
http://tinyurl.com/rgbstake

ECONOMIC NEWS,JOBS&HEALTH-What it all means?

Over the weekend, and this morning, there was a lot of news and reports bantered about regarding the US and World economies, joblessness predictions, and the proposed Health Plan. As some anticipated, house sales in October were up 10.1% over last year. Any increase is always good news, but since last year's number were so dismal, it's not as good news as it might seem. But, at least it's somewhat encouraging! Several sources have predicted that the worst of the joblessness numbers will be over by the end of the first quarter of 2010, but not before the rate rises somewhat to approximately 10.5%. These same sources are predicting a slight decrease in joblessness throughout the balance of 2010, and the consensus prediction for the year-end 2010 is approximately 9.6%. It is probably an indication of where we are at now that many are cheering a 9.6% unemployment rate as good news! The consensus among economists is that we are nearing the end of the recession, and the recession will end by the second or third quarter of 2010, and would then gradually improve based on other economic news and conditions.
The Senate, voting along straight party lines, voted 60-39 (Who was that 1 Republican who didn't vote?) to permit the health plan discussion to come to the Senate floor. However, at least 4 Democrats (who have been labeled by the media as Moderates) have stated that they voted to let the bill be discussed, but are opposed to the "Public Option." The media is also reporting that the liberal bloc of the Democratic Party has said that if the "Public Option" is removed, they believe the plan will be too watered- down, and they would then have to oppose the bill.
It is important to understand that because of certain peculiarities in the Senate's rules, that it takes 60 votes to pass this type of legislation, not just a majority. Since, to date, the Republicans have opposed the bill unanimously, it would take ALL Democrats and the 2 Independents voting Yea to advance the legislation. Further complicating the issue, is the politics involved since one-third of the Senate, and all of the House, is up for election in November 2010. That is the reason that the pro-plan advocates have been trying to get this accomplished as soon as possible, because politics will become an even greater factor the closer to the mid-term elections we get!
Proponents of this health legislation state that it is necessary to cover as many Americans as possible, control medical costs, and make the health care industry more responsible and fair. Opponents complain that the legislation proposed is excessively expensive, legislates medical care policy, and does not rein in the true causes of escalating medical costs. Opponents state that is essential to cap non-medical aspects of medical liability cases, permit insurance companies to be sold nationally to create "economies of scale," bring down the costs of drugs, reduce/ eliminate waste including excessive tests done(because doctors feel they need to protect themselves in a litiganous society).
The reality is that there are truths and fallacies on both sides of the political aisle, and unless our politicians magically begin to act as statesman, we will not get a good plan that works and accomplishes many needed areas. It is essential to remember that the costs and numbers that are put forward and publicized must be taken with a "grain of salt," because historically costs are higher and revenues are lower than the advance projections we are given.
In a previous blog, I discussed what I felt were the most important factors that needed to be discussed. Nobody has all the answers nor all the solutions, but I hope that whatever decision is made is responsible, effective and considers all the ramifications of their decisions. It is hard to believe that a 2,000 page piece of legislation has not been loaded with "pork" to get it passed! The challenge, as usual, is that most politicians consider their primary "job" running for office and getting elected, rather than being a statesman for the public good.

FOLLOW ME ON TWITTER: @rgbrody (www.twitter.com/rgbrody
GO TO MY CONSULTING SITE: http://tinyurl.com/rgbcons

America's Health Plan

Everyone, whether Republican or Democrat, conservative or liberal, would agree to a couple of things about our health care in the U.S.: (1) The costs have escalated dramatically, and continue to rise at an alarming rate even during a recession; (2) All Americans should receive adequate health care. From that point on, the politicians, "spinners," pundents, advocates, etc. take over, and create opposing plans, none of which address both of the things that they originally agreed upon.
The plan passed by the House, and what appears to be the plan being proposed in the Senate, differ in many major ways. Yet, neither of them addresses the two basic issues listed above! The House plan passed was approximately 2,000 pages of verbal legal jargon, that few representatives read in its entirety. Most representatives assign that "heavy lifing" to their aides, who then summarize the plan to the Congressman. The very fact that the plan was passed almost entirely by one party and opposed by the other, indicates that politics, rather trying to create the best plan, is the rule! The Senate is now bringing up a plan that all the details have NOT been disclosed, and needs 60 votes to even get to the Senate floor to be discussed.
The American public hears the health proposals via the "spin-meisters" and politicians and advocates, who only state part of the issue. The Republicans discuss the malpractice issue (and its related costs) and the Democrats avoid that issue because politically they don't want to offend the trial lawyers. The Democrats discuss mandating coverage, and the Republicans object to mandates and the related costs. The Democrats speak of taxing big earners in one version or large companies in another, without discussing the ramifications. The Republicans avoid discussing how to address adequate health care for all, and instead object to the costs of the Democrats plans. An objective observer would say that BOTH sides are "spinning" both the numbers and the plans to make their ideas seem better.
In other countries, there are public health programs. A dentist friend of mine from London recently developed an illness, which was taken care of expeditiously and effectively, because, as he put it, he had "private insurance." In the Bahamas, there are both public and private plans. Canada has had universal health care for many years. However, these countries have far smaller populations that in the U.S., and plans that work in one country may not work in all.
We need to develop a different frame of mind regarding many issues related to health care if we are to accomplish the important task of achieving the two worthy goals stated at the beginning of this blog. (1) Health insurance must be able to be sold across state lines. That would increase competition, offer more alternatives, and somewhat lower costs. (2) We have to cap non-medical malpractice liability payouts, so as to reduce overall health care costs, (3) We have to be much smarter in terms of forcing unfunded mandates on employers, hospitals, local governments, etc ., (4) We have to have a more efficient drug creation and review policy, to reduce both the costs of bringing drugs to market, and increase usage of generics, (5) We have to curb the use of the huge amount of unnecessary testing done, much of which is done by doctors to protect themselves from medical malpractice liability, (6) We need to reduce government waste, by the continuous use by governments of multiple, off duplicative layers of beaurocracy, (7) We must permit whatever economies of scale can be effectively used to reduce costs, (8) We must create a better electronic system where x-rays, tests, etc., taken in one locale, are easily available to licensed professionals elsewhere, (9) A greater emphasis on prevention is essential, (10) A fair evaluation as to when alternative methodologies might be an important part of the medical puzzle, and most importantly, (11) WE MUST "THINK OUTSIDE THE BOX."
The American public cannot let the politicians do "their thing" with an issue such as this, where any plan approved will most likely be a hodge-podge, mish-mosh, expensive and eventually dysfunctional and unworkable program, that we must simply reform again in a few years. This is too important - - - let's get it right the first time!!!

FOLLOW ME ON TWITTER: @rgbrody (www.twitter.com/rgbrody

The Art&Science of Hotel Negotiations

All too often, organizations and corporations end up paying far more than they need to because they do not follow the basic rules of hotel negotiations:
(1) Always use a comprehensive Request for Proposal (RFP). This RFP should include ALL anticipated needs of the group, including approximate number of guest rooms, meeting room utilization, Food & Beverage requirements and budget, Audio Visual needs, complimentary needs, etc.
(2) Send the RFP to numerous hotels in area that might be able to meet your needs. Let the hotels know that you have done this. (Competition is good for you)
(3) Ask for either discounts to F&B list price if event is in same calendar year, or lowest of a discounted price in this versus subsequent years.
(4) Let the hotels know that you are on a relatively tight budget, and can only pay "x" for your F&B requirements. NEGOTIATE whenever possible!
(5) Ask if F&B department would be willing to work with you to have menus that both fit your needs, as well as your financial requirements.
(6) Ask for some accomodation re Audio Visual.
(7) Ask for waiving of Meeting Room rental charges if you either have a certain number of guest rooms or F&B revenue.
(8) NEVER lie to the hotel. In today's world, they know what you've done in the past, and how your group was to work with.
(9) Book as far in advance as possible
(10) Be flexible on dates, if possible
(11) Remember to structure all deals/ agreements as a "win-win" situation for both you and the hotel
(12) Let the hotel know of anything complimentary you might require
(13) Let hotel know your priorities
(14) Get everything in writing, and make the RFP an addendum to your hotel contract.
(15) Get give-back dates, where you can return a certain percentage of rooms without penalty (aka attrition)
(16) Don't be greedy, but be firm in what you need, and don't give back important needs
(17) Have an "expert" either within your organization or outside your group oversee all arrangements from the onset.
(18) REMEMBER that once you sign the contract, there is NO reason for hotel to offer anything additional.
(19) Depending on your group size and revenue, certain concessions available might include: % giveback to master bill; welcome drinks; welcome party; complimentary internet; complimentary meal(s); reduced or complimentary health club/spa; complimentary guest rooms, etc.
(20) THINK AHEAD- Consider any and all possibilities and the ramifications!

This is just the beginning of good negotiations. Doing this properly, and proper and thorough follow-up, in advance, will make life much easier once the event occurs.

FOLLOW ME ON TWITTER: @rgbrody (www.twitter.com/rgbrody)
CONSULTING WEBSITE: http://tinyurl.com/rgbcons

Why is economic news is so confusing to understand?

No wonder most people don't understand the economy. Often what might seem good on one hand, has bad side effects on the other. For example, the stock market rises- one would think that was good! But that was mostly due to the rising price of oil- bad news. But the price of oil is rising because the "experts" believe the economy is improving and thus more oil will be needed in production- good news! But that rise in oil prices causes the cost of living to increase- bad news. But that helps the Gross Domestic Product (GDP)- good news! But that then causes inflation- bad news. But that inflation means the economy is improving- good news! But then the Fed becomes concerned about inflation and raises interest rates- bad news! Which causes the value of the dollar to improve- good news! But that hurts exports because now American products cost more overseas- bad news! But that means foreign products cost less in the US- good news! But that hurts American companies competetiveness- bad news!
And so on, etc. So you see why economic news often seems co confusing. Because it is- what is good for one consumer, might be bad for another- what is good for one company, bad for another- what might be good for one sector of economy- bad for others.
The stock market is often the most confusing. On days when there is "bad news," the market often goes up, while on some "good news" days, the market sometimes goes down! While the Dow, or the S&P, etc., might go up, it does NOT mean that the stock(s) you own, will follow suit.
Too often, for the sake of a sound-byte, the media tries to over-simplify economic news. Yet the economy is by definition quite complex.
The one issue there should be some agreement on is that high unemployment is not good. Yet even in that case, the "experts" can't agree upon, nor act upon a viable solution.
The best way to think about the economy is this-- the difference between a recession and a depression is that it's a recession when it happens to someone else-- it's a depression when it happens to you!
It is my belief that a healthy economy requires certain factors to be in place - - low joblessness; high consumer confidence; a strong manufacturing sector; and reduced government deficits. That is what we must demand!

Follow me on TWITTER at rgbrody (www.twitter.com/rgbrody)
My Consulting website: http://tinuyurl.com/rgbcons
My Real Estate website: www.portwashingtonlongislandhouses.com

How much is real, and how much perception?

It seems that every day there is another economic report out that different individuals interpret differently. Today, the joblessness report showed that "only" 502,000 new unemployment claims were made, which was 10,000 less than the previous month and 8,000 less than anticipated. The "gurus" jumped all over this report, letting us know that this was economic news. Although it probably was good news because things were getting significantly worse, it certainly wasn't good news for the 502,000 individuals putting in new unemployment claims. And this was on top of the over 10% already receiving regular and extended unemployment benefits, not to mention those who have taken lesser work or given up looking (estimates are a total of approximately 17.5%).
Also, in today's news, WalMart announced its 3Q economkic figures, and the net revenue was better than anticipated. That could be interpreted as good news, or not so good if one factors in that the increased net was based on lower than anticipated revenues, which means that obviously WalMart had made some "efficiencies" to improve its numbers.
Over 80% of the companies reporting 3Q figures have reported better than anticipated numbers. Does that mean that we are gradually coming out of the recession (hopefully), or that companies are cutting jobs making themselves more profitable, or that the "experts" are under-estimating, or some combination of the three? It all depends on PERCEPTION.
Most experts believe that the worst of the recession has passed, and that there will be gradual, but slow improvement during 2010. Historically, companies begin recovery periods by hiring part-time workers before they add full-time employees. However, since the average number of hours the American worker has dropped to only 33 hours per week, will companies then simply have existing workers put in a little more time. I believe that this figure of number of average hours per week will be a significant one to look at when we want to see how much progress is being made in getting out of the recession.
The housing market is an important one to follow as an indicator of the economy. Government incentives have slightly shored up the housing market, but it will not bounce back until there is some restoration of consumer confidence. For anyone who is in a position to buy a house, there has rarely been this great a buying situation, when you consider the combination of relatively low prices, low mortgage rates (average 30 year mortgage rates dropped today to 4.91%), tax incentives, and selection on market. Yet, many potential buyers are still adopting a "wait-and-see" approach, and just taking their time. Most experts believe that home prices, and mortgage interest rates will nudge up toward the second half of 2010. Again, consumer confidence and perception is a primary factor in this evaluation.
So, what is really going on? Huge US deficits, a weak US dollar, a recession, high joblessness and under-employment, are all unfortunate realities. Corporations have reacted by making themselves more cost-efficient, but unfortunately that exacerbates the unemployment challenge. The economy does not appear to be getting any worse! The next important step is to see how consumer confidence reacts. Halloween shopping was nearly 30% down this year, and if Christmas shopping bounces back somewhat, that will be an important indicator that consumer confidence is increasing. Many major retailers have already announced that they will beging "Black Friday" sales early, and be more aggressive in their marketing this season. Hopefully, some of the seasonal employment will be extended and we see a restoration in the job area as early as the second quarter of 2010. Vacation travel during the holidays, and overall travel in January and February of next year, will also be important indicators of consumer confidence.
Since most experts believe that one of the driving forces in creating this recession is the high cost of energy, job creation should be created by having the government create alternative energy incentives, and for hiring and re-training into that industry. T.Boone Pickens has promoted heavily his Pickens Plan, with the goal of US energy independence, by using alternative energy (he prefers windmills), and natural gas (because of its abundance in the US). Creating jobs in this area would be a short-term and a long-term solution, because it addresses not only employment, but a stronger US energy policy.
The American electorate must demand from it's politicians that they become leaders. Leadership and statesmanship means that "polls" should not dictate policy, but that they need to be effective problem solvers. It can be done, and must be done, for the U.S. to again become the strongest economy in the world. I truly believe that if the American public clearly demands "real change," instead of empty promises, we can "jump-start" our economy, and consumer confidence. I urge you all to join with me.

Follow me on Twitter: @rgbrody (www.twitter.com/rgbrody)
My consulting website: http://tinyurl.com/rgbcons
My real-estate website: http://tinyurl.com/rgb242