Is The Housing Market Always Seasonal?

While there is little doubt, at least from a statistical, historic basis, that more houses sell during certain times of year, one of the realities of real estate is that there are few iron - clad guarantees! Real estate professionals often discuss the Spring Market, often nearly as if it is somewhat of a magic elixir to all that might be ailing during the rest of the year. However, there are many factors to examine:

1. Spring Market - Depending on the area of the country, generally considered to be from about March through June (or early July). While there are more houses listed on the market during this time than other times, and there are also far more buyers looking, we must differentiate between actual/ real buyers and lookers. Those with children of school age often prefer to look during this period because if they find a home, they can settle in before the new school year. In addition, it is more seasonably comfortable (especially here in the Northeast) to look during this season. Also, homes generally are more attractive during Spring, with lawns green and flowers blooming. However, remember that the key is generally creating a Meeting of the Minds, and there is far more competition during this Season (depending on whether it is a Sellers Market, Buyers Market, or a neutral one) than other times of year.


2. Summer Market - We have all heard of the Dog Days of Summer, and because of a combination of hot weather, summer vacations, etc., this season often sees somewhat of a slowdown. However, remember that there are many serious buyers out during this season, who either did not get a chance to go out during Spring, or didn't find what they wanted and could afford. Both supply and demand is generally reduced from Spring, but many sales are still made during the July through September season.

3. Fall/ Pre- Winter Market - October to early - December - Generally smaller supply and smaller demand, but generally buyers are somewhat more committed and real. Many buyers want to procure a home before the New Year, and before the Winter.

4. Winter Market - December through early March. More challenging to have Open Houses, and to get buyers to come out to view homes. However, buyers looking during these months are generally the most committed and ready to buy. While there is less demand, there is also less supply, and thus there is generally a committed market that should be addressed and paid attention to. (Remember that there are 2 Holiday times during this season - Xmas/ New Years, and President's Week).

While there is generally a certain amount of seasonality to the housing market, it is important to realize that houses sell year - around. When sellers, buyers and real estate professionals approach each season in a serious, intelligent manner, houses will address the buyers that are suited for them!

Economic & Political Indicators and Factors That Might Impact 2015 Home Market

Beware of anyone who states that they can state with absolute certainty or guarantee what is going to happen in the future! It is, therefore, precisely for that reason that potential home buyers and sellers, as well as real estate professionals must keep a careful eye on certain things that might have an impact on the housing market. Some of these include:

Federal Reserve actions (or inactions): DO NOT merely listen to the hype, or overly depend on the intuitions, suppositions, etc. of the so - many, so - called experts! Rather, look at the copy of the actual minutes of the Fed meetings when they are released, and learn what actions might be taken, and when. This includes items such as interest rates, monetary policies, bond buybacks, etc. The more, and better, you know and understand, the better off you'll be!

Credit company policies: Companies such as Experian, TransUnion, etc., have individual policies that might impact credit ratings (and specifically, yours). Get your free copy of your report annually, and take advantage of looking at your credit score when your credit cards might provide this information (e.g. Discover, Juniper/ Barclays, etc. provide your Credit Rating monthly). You can also use websites like CreditKarma and see for free your relative scores. Do all you can to maintain the highest possible personal score.

International events: Events elsewhere in the world often impact our economy at home. Read, study, take courses, and learn as much as you can, to best position yourself. Some of these factors may include: Economic upticks or slowdowns; wars/ unrest/ fears/ battles; oil disruption (or fear of such); terrorism; widespread computer hacking, etc.

Your local real estate market: Housing demands, pricing, etc. vary dramatically from region to region. Keep an eye on your local market, using websites such as Multiple Listing Service, Trulia, Zillow, and many others, to examine such relevant components, such as: homes on market; average length on market; comparison to your house; features; etc. Sellers should price their homes right from the start, and buyers should be realistic and pragmatic, in order to get the optimum results.

Politics: Are there any laws, codes, etc., that might have an impact, either positive or negative? Don't only look at what's on the books now, but take into consideration proposed changes, etc. For example, building lot size; property taxes; mortgage tax and interest deductions; proposed projects, etc. that might change things, etc.

DON'T FORGET YOUR GUT! But be lead by your head, NOT your heart alone! 
 

Rich Brody's Take: My 2015 Real Estate Predictions/ Crystal Ball

Rich Brody's Take: My 2015 Real Estate Predictions/ Crystal Ball: It's always both somewhat dangerous, while also being fun, to make predictions or prognostications for the upcoming year, so, of course,...

My 2015 Real Estate Predictions/ Crystal Ball

It's always both somewhat dangerous, while also being fun, to make predictions or prognostications for the upcoming year, so, of course, I just couldn't resist the urge. Disclaimer: These are merely my thoughts and/ or projections, and certainly no guarantee, of any sort. However, although we are in an ever - unpredictable world, with an often, even more unpredictable (or often, even explainable) economy, the predictions for 2015, are even more intriguing (as well as being speculative). So, here are the Richard Brody 2015 Real Estate Predictions (Using my Crystal Ball):

1. The most likely: Most sellers will continue to over - value their homes, while most prospective buyers will also continue the low ball approach. This approach occurs every year, and nearly never gets the best results. As always: Pricing your home right from the start will get the best results for the homeowner, and realistic offers (and knowing what you can afford) is the best buyer approach.

2. Mortgage Rates: Since they are now, and have been for some time, at historic low rates, eventually they will probably go up. No one knows for sure, but the Federal Reserve has indicated that it will, sometime in 2015 (probably sooner than later, but dependent on economic conditions) probably alter its policies somewhat, which will create an increase in interest rates (therefore, mortgage rates would probably follow). My prediction is that rates will remain someone steady, at lead until the latter part of the 2nd Quarter, or 3rd or 4th Quarter, and then will gradually rise. (Remember that when mortgage rates rise, monthly carry charges for homeowners rise, as well.

3. Real estate taxes always seem to go up, no matter what appraisals, political posturing, etc., is. 2015 should be no exception.

4. Housing Market: 2014 was better than 2013, and a big improvement from the 2008-12 period, in most regions of the country. I would expect markets to be steady to slightly better, because it is becoming increasingly difficult for young families to afford home ownership, but since rents have similarly risen in many locations, I believe more young families (1st time homebuyers) might decide to jump in (before interest rates go up).

5. Tax deductions for mortgage interest and real estate taxes: No one ever knows for certain what politicians will do, but I believe even politicians are NOT crazy enough (especially in a continuously fragile economy) to eliminate these. If anything is done, there may be a movement to cap the amount of these that are tax deductible, but I do NOT believe that will happen in 2015!


We'll have to wait about a year to see how well my predictions work! I believe in them, but there are NO guarantees. 

Owning a home is an important component of our nation's economy. Hopefully, issues facing affordability for 1st time Buyers, etc., can be addressed to make it remain an essential part of most people's American Dream. But I don't expect any miracles during 2015, with the current economic policy.


I present this to you because of my trademarked pledge: "I will always tell you what you need to know, not just what you want to hear." TM 

   

Richard Brody's Real Estate Cybertips - January Edition

Here is the Link to the latest edition of my monthly : Richard Brody's Cybertips

Hope you enjoy!

http://www.recyber.com/cyber-tips/cyber-tip/r14559

Rich Brody's Take: How You Price Your Home Is A Combination of Art an...

Rich Brody's Take: How You Price Your Home Is A Combination of Art an...: People come up to me all the time and ask, "How's the real estate market doing?" Although I would really enjoy giving a simp...

How You Price Your Home Is A Combination of Art and Science!

People come up to me all the time and ask, "How's the real estate market doing?" Although I would really enjoy giving a simple answer to this question, the real answer is far more complex. In certain parts of the country, the housing market has been stronger than in many other areas, although, prices are lower than they were at the peak of the market. However, many homeowners who list their homes have listed them at unrealistically high prices, and then been inflexible in terms of reducing their price. I have observed homeowners list their houses at prices higher than homes sold for at the peak of the market, and then becoming disappointed when their homes don't sell. Some homeowners explain their asking price by explaining how much money they have put into their homes, or how beautiful and exceptional their house is. Often, these same homeowners have owned their houses for many years, and they seem to conveniently forget how little they originally paid for their houses. Yet, the reality is that the price one receives for one's house is not related directly to how much one may have paid, or how much one may have put into the property. In the end, houses generally sell based on what buyers are willing to spend for the house, and that is generally related to the real estate market at that time. These homeowners are generally hurting their own chances of selling their homes by listing their homes at unrealistically high prices. Houses that are "priced right to sell" from the start have a far better chance of selling than those priced too high. Today's buyers study the internet, and many realize what comparable houses are realistically selling for. A basic reality of real estate is that in most cases, the best offer a homeowner will receive for his house is received in the first few weeks after it goes on the market. New listings are "hot" to potential buyers, while houses that remain unsold often elicit questions from buyers as to what was wrong with the property - why it hasn't sold? Many owners interested in selling their homes interview several real estate agents and brokers, and ask for recommendations as to pricing, as well as many other questions. Many owners want to believe the agent that tells them their house is worth the highest amount, as if saying it will automatically bring forth a higher price. Instead, owners should demand a professionally prepared Comparative Market Analysis, including pricing and a marketing plan from their realtor. In most cases, a homeowner will do best going with an agent that acts professionally, markets professionally, and justifies both the pricing, and how the marketing plan will work. In addition, even if a "stranger from another planet" decided to pay an unrealistically high price for a house, most buyers need to get a mortgage to finalize the funding for the purchase. Lending institutions, for a number of reasons including some unwise lending decisions during the height of the real estate "bubble," are doing far more complete and conservative comparative market analysis of their own, and if this comparison (known as "Comps") do not justify the price being offered, the lending institution will deny that amount of funding because it does not "comp out." Since for most individuals, their home is their most valuable asset, doesn't it make sense to objectively ask the same questions as an owner that potential buyers will ask? The main question should be, "How does this house compare with comparable homes in comparable areas in comparable condition? Owners should also ask, "If I were buying a home, would I pay that much for this house?"